267 



SIPRI points out that in 1971, 16 countries had 128 nuclear power 

 reactors in operation with a total generating capacity of 35,000 mega- 

 watts. By 1977, 32 countries are expected to have 325 working nuclear 

 power plants with a total output of 174,000 megawatts. By 1980, the 

 world nuclear capacity estimated by SIPRI will probably exceed 

 350,000 megawatts. 



These nuclear power plants will produce plutonium as a by-product. 

 SIPRI estimates that 13 tons will be produced in 1972, increasing to 

 65 tons annually in 1977 and to 130 tons in 1980. By 1980, about one- 

 third of this plutonium will be owned by countries which do not now 

 have nuclear weapons. This amount of plutonium, in theory, might 

 supply nuclear explosives to manufacture 100 weapons per week of 

 the size dropped on Hiroshima. 327 



In SIPRI's analysis of the potentialities for proliferation, it identi- 

 fies 15 countries capable of developing nuclear weapons within the 

 short- or medium-term future. Therefore the attitudes of these coun- 

 tries toward the Nonproliferation Treaty are of intrinsic interest. 328 



The Four Functions of the Nonproliferation Treaty 



In broad outline, the Nonproliferation Treaty has four major 

 functions, which are to : 



(1) Commit the nations of the world which do not now have 

 nuclear weapons not to produce or to receive them in the future ; 



(2) Assure equally that such nations have the full peaceful 

 benefits of the atom ; 



(3) Provide assurance, through international safeguards, that 

 the peaceful nuclear activities of states which have not already 

 developed nuclear weapons will not be diverted to making sucn 

 weapons ; and 



(4) Recognize the determination of the parties that the Treaty 

 should lead to further progress toward arms control and dis- 

 amament. 



The Treaty identifies two classes of nations : those which have the 

 atom bomb, and those which do not. The latter are expected to open 

 their borders and nuclear facilities to international inspection, 

 which nations that possess the atom bomb have not agreed to 

 do. In return, the non-weapons countries have the pledge of the 

 weapons-possessing powers not to give nuclear weapons to non- 

 weapons states. Among the major nuclear nations, the United States, 

 the Soviet Union, and the United Kingdom are parties to the Treaty.. 

 France and the People's Republic of China have not signed it, nor 

 have three nations thought to be able to produce weapons: India, 

 Israel, and the Union of South Africa. The South Africans assert that 

 they are developing a secret process to enrich uranium. Among other 

 leading countries, early in 1972 eight had signed but had not ratified 

 the Treaty. These included Australia, Belgium, Egypt, Italy, Japan, 

 the Netherlands, Switzerland and West Germany. 



Among the nations party or signatory to the Nonproliferation 

 Treaty are several which have a strong enough industrial and finan- 

 cial base to produce nuclear weapons. These include Australia, Can- 



827 Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. World Armaments and Disarma- 

 ment ; SIPRI Yearbook 1972 (New York: Humanities Press, 1972), pp. 288-290. 



338 The 15 countries identified by SIPRI fall into two groups : the non-signatories and 

 those which have signed hut not ratified the Treaty. Early in 1972 the nations in each 



froup were as follows : Non-signatories included Argentina, Brazil, India, Israel, Pakistan, 

 outh Africa and Spain ; signers included Australia, Belgium, Egypt, the Federal Republic 

 of Germany, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands and Switzerland. 



