542 



benefits to the United States must by their nature be uncertain of ful- 

 fillment, especially in the short run. On the other hand, the economic 

 benefits to the Soviet Union from improved commercial relations may 

 be certain and significant, even in the short run. Thus, the risk of un- 

 fulfilled expectations appears greater for the United States than for 

 the Soviet Union. More specifically, increased technology transfers to 

 the Soviet Union may show only long-term benefits to the United 

 States in the diplomatic and political area. 



