546 



tion goes according to the Plan, but at a diminished rate — another 5 to 

 6 percent reduction. (See Table 1.) 



Success in this modest improvement in the energy balance will de- 

 pend on Soviet ability to expand hydrocarbon output in Western 

 Siberia, where two-thirds of the increased output is projected for the 

 Ninth Five- Year Plan. 26 The West Siberian development, in turn, 

 requires considerable importation of extraction, transmission, and re- 

 finery equipment. Moreover, the technology of construction in perma- 

 frost may dictate some industrial cooperation with American firms 

 familiar with Alaskan Northern Slope technology. The projected ex- 

 pansion of the West Siberian energy project would require a huge in- 

 vestment. Consequently, Soviet decision makers may have to choose 

 between a major economic growth and modernization project and 

 costly defense programs. 2 



27 



TABLE 1.-S0VIET ENERGY PRODUCTION, 1970 AND 1975 



1970 



Percentage of 



Extraction Fuel and Extraction 



and pro- Fuel re- power and pro- 

 duction sources resources duction 



1975 



Percentage of 



Fuel and 1975 as 



Fuel re- power percentage 



sources resources of 1970 



Oil, including condensed gas (million 

 metric tons) 



Gas, natural (billion cubic meters) 



Coal (million metric tons) 



Peat, for fuel (million metric tons) 



Oil shale (million metric tons)... 



Firewood, for fuel (million cubic meters). 



Fuel resources— total (million metric tons 

 of conventional fuel) 



Hydroenergy (billion kWh) 



Atomic energy (billion kWh)__ 



Fuel and power resources— total (million 

 metric tons of conventional fuel) 



Source: Baibakov, p. 98. 



In metal output, non-ferrous metals are particularly important in 

 the Ninth Five- Year Plan. In 1969 non-ferrous metals represented 

 only 8.75 percent of the total value of base metals in the Soviet Union 

 (as compared with 20 percent in the United States). 28 An effort is 

 currently underway to increase the proportion of non-ferrous metals : 

 output of most important metals in this category are projected to in- 

 crease by 50 percent. 29 Development of the aluminum, copper, and 

 other metal sources which are abundant in East Siberia, close to the 

 Soviet Union's low-cost hydroelectric system, is particularly attractive. 

 Increases in non-ferrous metal production are projected to provide 

 valuable inputs for modernizing other industrial sectors. A shift in 

 building materials to non-ferrous metals, paralleling the pattern in 

 other industrial countries, is prescribed. 



n The first published Soviet plan In 30 years provides some detailed Insights on 

 projected Soviet cnorcv consumption : N. K. Baibakov, Gosudarstvcnnpi pyatiletnyi plan 

 raziitiia narodnoqo khoziaistr,, SSSR na 1971-1975 qodu. (State Five-Year Plan for 

 Development of the USSR National Economy for the Period 1971-1075) (Moscow, 

 GOftPlan, April 1072). (Hereafter cited as Baibakov.) 



27 For a discussion of this .Soviet dilemma see below, Chanqinq Priorities in Allocation: 

 Growth in. Defense, pp. 24-20. 



m Alexander Sutulov, The Soviet Challenge in Base Metals (Salt Lake City: The Univ. 

 of Utah Printing Service, 1971), 183. 



29 Baibakov, p. 115. 



