565 



agricultural crisis. The Soviet preference for maintaining considerable 

 state reserves may preclude a policy of continuous export of gold. 



TABLE 7.— ESTIMATES OF SOVIET GOLD OUTPUT AND DISPOSITIONS (METRIC TONS) 



1 Negligible. 



2 Samuel Montagu & Co. Ltd., "Annual Bullion Review 1971," London, 1972, p.6 suggests a figure closer to 65 tons. 



3 No estimates available. 



Sources: Michael Kaser, "Soviet Gold— Production and Use," Gold 1971 and "Soviet Gold Production and Sales in 1971," 

 Gold 1972; "The U.S.S.R.'s Undisclosed Assets," Radio Free Europe research, Jan. 11, 1973. 



SOVIET EARNINGS FROM INVISIBLE TRADE 



Yugoslavia and other East European countries have demonstrated 

 that a rapid expansion in tourism is possible even for Communist 

 countries. In Yugoslavia, for example, the tourist business is thriving. 

 In recent years, tourism has been a major factor in improving the 

 Yugoslav balance of payments; $335 million was earned in the first 

 nine months of 1972." Perhaps the uneven quality of Intourist, Aero- 

 flot, and other Soviet tourist facilities will continue to restrict tourism 

 in the Soviet Union to a more modest scale. However, there are signs 

 that the Soviet Union may try to capture a larger share of the tourist 

 trade. Arrangements have been made with Western airlines and hotel 

 chains to provide better facilities for foreign visitors. Further Soviet 

 changes, such as a relaxation of travel restrictions and security harass- 

 ment, could lead to a substantial increase. 



Tourism has already brought a small, but significant, inflow of hard 

 currency. Intourist claimed that 2.5 million visitors would visit the 

 Soviet Union in 1972, an increase of 12 percent over 1971. 74 Generally, 

 a larger number of tourists travel from hard currency countries to the 

 Soviet Union than vice versa. 75 Thus, the Soviets have a considerable 

 positive balance in the tourist trade. Without major changes in present 

 policies, the Soviets are unlikely to be as successful as their East 

 European neighbors in promoting tourism. 



Soviet merchant shipping has expanded at an impressive rate in re- 

 cent years. The merchant marine now totals over 16 million gross 

 registered tons, and is the sixth largest fleet in the world. During the 

 current five-year plan, 1971-1975, the Soviet merchant marine plans 

 to add five million tons. Soviet ships now carry most goods shipped to 

 and from the Soviet Union, and Soviet shipping officials have recently 

 begun to compete for cargoes in other parts of the world. For example, 

 they now do a considerable amount of business on the Australia-to- 

 Europe shipping routes. 



73 Zdanko Antic, "Yugoslav Balance of Payments Improving," Radio Free Europe 

 Research, Nov. 29, 1972. 



74 " T he Tourist In Russia," Washington Post, Sept. 3, 1972. 



75 For Soviet travel statistics, see International Union of Official Travel Organizations. 

 International Travel Statistics. 



