571 



agricultural trade is periodic, depending on the grain harvest; trade 

 may take place in technologically advanced products, to fill short-run, 

 non-recurrent needs; and some trade is required to meet unexpected 

 bottlenecks in Soviet domestic plans. 



Soviet imports of cereal grains are particularly unstable. The So- 

 viet Union changes from a net exporter in good weather years to a 

 substantial net importer in bad years. (See Table 9.) The United 

 States exported large amounts o,f grain in 1964 and in 1972-1973. 

 However, in the intervening years, exports were negligible, as the 

 Soviet Union returned to its role as a net grain exporter. Moreover, 

 the Soviet Union may not buy from the United States even when it 

 is a net importer (as in 1965 and 1966). In 1972-1973, the Soviet 

 Union might have traded more extensively with Canada, Australia, 

 or France, if those countries had not already exhausted their export 

 capability. France exported a million tons to the Soviet Union in 1972. 

 Canada and Australia reportedly could not take any more orders be- 

 cause of grain shortages and saturation of their transport facilities. 



TABLE 9.— SOVIET EXPORTS AND IMPORTS OF GRAIN (EXCLUDING GROATS AND FLOUR) 



|ln thousands of metric tons) 



1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 



Cuba 462 516 464 492 513 481 526 550 574 



Czechoslovakia... 1,501 900 1,169 1,242 1,349 1,422 1,383 1,378 1,489 



Egypt 1,000 298 301 



GDR 1,577 1,191 1,054 1,148 1,187 1,256 1,488 1,596 1,913 



Hungary 141 15 378 101 277 288 114 426 



North Korea... 50.. 100 118 251 105 130 247 152 



Poland 820 110 491 504 1,042 830 1,272 1,073 2,133 



United Kingdom.. 276 49 224 404 302 283 



Total exports including 6,260 3,514 4,330 3,557 6,248 5,406 7,205 5,698 8,640 



Argentina ._ 6 106 763 1,443 21 30 165 196 



Australia 273 1,402 1,239 137 277 



Canada 2,323 3, f 85 3,310 4,494 1,613 1,289 30 1,634 1,805 



France.... 834 1,168 171 1 437 



United States 1,785 



Total imports including 3,103 7,287 6,375 7,746 2,185 1,606 639 2,200 3,500 



Netexports... 3,157 4,063 3,800 6,566 3,498 5,140 



Netimports 3,573 2,045 4,189.. 



Sources: USSR. Ministerstvo Vneshnei Torgovli. "Vneshniaia torgovlia za 1964-71 god; statisticheskii obzor, Mos- 

 cow 1965-72, and "The Soviet Grain Trade Balance," Radio Liberty Dispatch, Aug. 30, 1972. 



Soviet imports of other goods may also be sporadic. In the past, the 

 Soviet Union has occasionally chosen to import, rather than tool up, to 

 meet short-run, high-technology requirements. The short-term require- 

 ment of diesel locomotives in the 1959-1965 Seven-Year Plan, im- 

 ported largely from France, is a case in point. The Soviet reluctance 

 to manufacture large-diameter gas transmission pipe may be another 

 example. Pipe is currently imported from West Germany and Italy. 



The Soviet Union also imports to meet unexpected bottlenecks in 

 high-priority economic activities. Once this type of requirement is 

 satisfied, it may not recur. Such unforeseen requirements may be caused 

 by shifts in priorities, rather than technical bottlenecks. A classic ex- 

 ample occurred in 1954: the British textile industry tooled up to meet 

 an apparent Soviet demand for consumer goods brought on by Premier 

 Malenkov's new economic policies. However, another change in leader- 

 ship, the replacement of Premier Georgi Malenkov by Khrushchev, 



