256 



... We are confident that by pre-producing some enriched uranium, by im- 

 proving the efficiency and increasing the capacity of our existing plants, and by 

 optimizing their operating modes, we can meet all of our domestic and foreign 

 enriching requirements until about 1982 — even if no new plant is brought into 

 operation before that date. 



Two U.S. policies affected the planning for these increases. First 

 was the Presidential policy for eventual transfer of uranium enrich- 

 ment to the private sector. Second was the AEC announcement in 

 June 1971 of a program to give U.S. companies full access to the 

 enriching process technology so that they might decide what role they 

 would play in providing commercial enrichment services. If govern- 

 ment plants are transferred to the private sector, there will be the 

 questions of arrangements between the AEG and the private owners 

 .to fulfill the foreign commitment of the United States. 



- ?or' : ■• ' ■ . ENRICHMENT REQUIBEMENTS 



, Assuming enriched uranium will fuel much of the non-Communist 

 world's nuclear power plants unt^l .nuclear, breeders are introduced in 

 '#i©_ Jateij 1980's, and that the demand far enriched uranium and enriqh- 

 ing .services will continue to.gw>w ( until then, 302 there arises the question 

 of the U.S. ability to deliver during the l&JOV That ability will depend 

 upon the production capacity of U.S. industrial plants, the availa- 

 bility of electricity to operate, the separation process, and the cost of 

 that electricity. To put the 'capital and the electrical power require- 

 ments of a large diffusion plant into perspective in relation to nuclear 

 power plants they serve, each megawatt of electrical power supply 

 committed: to operation at the enrichment plants will produce enough 

 enriched uranium to fuel from 24 to 45 megawatts of nuclear power 

 plant output. 303 



. Viewed another way, the U.S. commitment to supply uranium en- 

 richment services for foreign users of nuclear power calls for a power 

 plant with an electrical power output of 1,000 megawatts for each 

 additional 24 to 45 nuclear power plants of comparable power output 

 to be fueled with enriched uranium. It remains to be seen whether 

 the commitment of this much generating capacity in the United States 

 for the benefit of electricity industries abroad is acceptable at a time 

 when the United States is itself facing the prospect of electricity 

 shortage. The issue will certainly require the balancing of foreign 

 policy and domestic policy considerations. 



Three means are at hand to meet these commitments. The AEC 

 can bring its present production plants up to full capacity; it can 

 modify present plants to increase their productivity; and it can 

 build new plants. Complicating these options is the administration's 

 policy that the government's uranium enrichment plants should be 

 sold to private industry. 



AEC Commissioner Johnson discussed these options at Geneva 

 in 1971. Considering the present separation capabilities, he observed 

 that the AEC's three enrichment plants during the fiscal year 1972 

 had operated at about half their production level, and that even at 

 these reduced levels the AEC was still producing enriched uranium 



aoafThese assumptions could be upset by challenges of the breeder programs by some 

 environmentalist croups, or by delays In the demonstration of this technology. 

 *» Ibid., p. 2.5-7. 



