sensitivity under varying ecological conditions. 

 Time/temperature relationships can result in ther- 

 mal damage to plant organs as well as to soil 

 fauna and organisms. More needs to be known 

 about the physiological effects of near lethal tem- 

 peratures on plant functions such as respiration, 

 translocation, growth substances, and enzyme 

 reactions. 



Chemical derivatives from wood. Wood, a mix- 

 ture of organic polymers, can be used directly as 

 an energy fuel; as a raw material for conversion 

 into liquid, solid, or gaseous fuels; for conversion 

 into chemical feedstocks to replace petrochemi- 

 cals; and for conversion into human or animal 

 feedstuffs. Naval stores, lignin, and carbohydrates 

 could be potential new sources of organic chemi- 

 cals at lower costs and with environmental side- 

 benefits. Basic research will develop information 

 on solvation, separation, derivatives, and reac- 

 tions of these complex chemical constituents of 

 wood. 



Methodologies for measuring nontimber goods 

 and services of forest and rangelands. Improved 

 methodologies are needed for defining the supply 

 potential for all the varied, interacting goods and 

 services provided by forest and rangelands. 



Consequences of and adjustments to price insta- 

 bility. These studies should enhance understand- 

 ing of modern market structure and performance 

 and form a basis for more accurate forecasts of 

 commodity prices, market demand and supply 

 conditions, and the incidence of benefits and costs 

 resulting from price and output instability. This 

 knowledge, in turn, should provide an improved 

 basis for evaluating various public options for 

 market intervention or stimulation. 



New research will inquire further into the na- 

 ture and sources of price and output instability in 

 commodity markets and quantify changing rela- 

 tionships. The effects of this instability on the 

 organization and structure of farming will be as- 

 sessed. Relevant actions and optional adjustments 

 of farmers will be analyzed. Contracting, diversi- 

 fication, and enterprise-sharing arrangements will 

 be included in these analyses. 



Comprehensive economic forecasting and projec- 

 tion models. Efforts to upgrade information on the 

 near-term agricultural outlook and on long-run 

 projections both to public and private decision- 

 makers provide a continuing framework for basic 

 research. Economists forecast prices, production, 

 domestic use, and exports for individual commod- 

 ities; and they make estimates for aggregates, 

 such as farm income, the farm and retail price 

 indexes, and food consumption. In connection 

 with this, they seek an increasingly relevant con- 

 ceptual context for such forecasts to enhance 

 their reliability and more adequately define the 



28 AGRICULTURE 



limits to this reliability and the reasons for these 

 limits. 



Experimental approaches include prototype goal 

 programming to estimate the competitive equilibri- 

 um situation due to U. S. domestic and export 

 food and fiber requirements, with technology, 

 resource availability, and methods of production 

 and marketing as fixed factors. A short-term ag- 

 gregate income and wealth simulator model con- 

 sists of 53 ancillary relationships, 21 simultaneous 

 equations, and 4 account identities. It forecasts 

 components of the income accounts, balance 

 sheet, and a sources and use of funds statement 

 for the farm sector. 



World food situation and country market studies. 

 Uncertainty about future world markets, particu- 

 larly in regard to major trade commodities such as 

 grains and oilseeds, places a premium on upgrad- 

 ing the quality of economic research on foreign 

 markets. Accordingly, economists are evolving an 

 integrated system of individual country models to 

 be used either separately or as a properly linked 

 world trade model. In-depth studies and models 

 for individual major countries and/or economical- 

 ly integrated groups of countries will be linked to 

 U.S. models already operational and others being 

 developed. The models will be used for interme- 

 diate-term projections — up to five years. The de- 

 velopment of such a framework that includes par- 

 allel analysis of countries at varying stages of de- 

 velopment and with various forms of government 

 will necessarily involve a significant component of 

 basic research. This work will backstop continuing 

 forecasts of the world food situation. 



Population and migration. Systematic inquiries 

 into changes in population size, composition, and 

 related residential characteristics, and analyses of 

 alternative explanations of these changes are ba- 

 sic inputs to other studies that seek to relate man- 

 power utilization and consumer or resident satis- 

 faction to the degree of development of a commu- 

 nity, area, or region and to the interrelationships 

 between that area and the Nation. These analy- 

 ses comprise some of the basic materials necessary 

 for an understanding of national and related sub- 

 national development. Attainment of this under- 

 standing is necessary so that a range of programs 

 for development or revitalization of communities 

 or cities, for provision of cost-effective facilities 

 and services, and for provision of a minimum in- 

 come for all residents can be most effectively 

 evolved and administered. 



Regional and rural development. An improved 

 understanding is needed of the significance of the 

 rural or nonmetropolitan sector in the national 

 and international economies and the interfaces 

 with other subnational entities such as communi- 

 ties. Modeling work is a key approach to gaining 



