availability of energy. We think a successful tran- 

 sitioning of our energy system away from its heavy 

 dependence on petroleum is not likely to be asso- 

 ciated with a stagnating economy. Similarly a se- 

 vere and protracted energy shortage is not likely to 

 be associated with a continuation of the same 

 growth in our economy that the Nation has en- 

 joyed in the past. The possibility of inadequate 

 energy supplies accompanied by a stagnant econo- 

 my is a basis for our contingency RD&D planning, 

 even though the development of major new sys- 

 tems is less likely than with a healthy economy. 

 Our primary RD&D planning has been based on 

 the assumption that the country will continue to 

 experience at least a moderate rate of economic 

 growth and will have adequate energy supplies, 

 though at higher prices. This is the scenario which 

 represents the greatest opportunities for desirable 

 changes in our transportation systems. 



We expect to generate roughly twice the total 

 GNP between 1975 and 2000 than we did in the 

 prior 25 years. In fact, in the next 25 years we are 

 likely to generate a total output of $54 trillion, 

 which is roughly equal to that of the whole prior 

 century. 



When we consider that in just the last 25 years, 

 with a GNP of $27 trillion, we built the interstate 

 system, the world's best air system, and can afford 

 one car for every two persons, the oft-stated view 

 that we can't afford anything very new or very 

 large in the future may he overly pessimistic. 



Between 1950 and 1975 GNP/capita grew from 

 about $5000 per person to almost $7000 per person 

 (all in 1975 dollars). If we have the same rate of 

 economic growth in the future, GNP/capita will 

 expand to nearly $12,000 by the year 2000. 



Thus, it appears highly likely that we will be a 

 more affluent population individually as well as 

 collectively. We, therefore, think the Depart- 

 ment's RD&D programs to provide us exciting op- 

 tions for this future are entirely appropriate. 



Statement of William Steber, Deputy Assistant 

 Secretary for Systems Engineering, Department of 

 Transportation, before the House Committee on 

 Science and Technology, Subcommittee on Avia- 

 tion, Transportation and Weather, Tuesday, March 

 15, 1977. 



Mr. Chairman and Members of the Subcommit- 

 tee: 



My name is William Steber. I am Deputy Assis- 

 tant Secretary for Systems Engineering. 



The process described by Mr. Owens has fur- 

 nished the groundwork for the development and 

 description of the key issues that must be ad- 

 dressed in our research development and demon- 

 stration (RD&D) program. That process is respon- 

 sive to overall departmental goals and objectives 



and provides an opportunity for improving the 

 productivity of our overall program by identifying 

 significant RD&D program thrusts in the modes 

 and at the Office of the Secretary of Transporta- 

 tion (OST). The key issues fall into three major 

 categories: 



Intermodal 



Intermodal issues require action in more than 

 one administration. By and large they result from 

 looking at transport needs on a total system basis. 

 The two most important areas are intercity freight 

 and urban transportation. 



Intercity freight encompasses a group of more 

 specific actions concerned with efficiency and 

 productivity in the movement of freight. All modes 

 of transport (air, ground, water) become involved 

 and interconnected when the total system ap- 

 proach is taken. Specific areas of concern are: The 

 improvement of terminal facilities for multimodal 

 use; flexible connectivity between the line haul and 

 collection/distribution system; port planning, with 

 special regard to container ports; special materials 

 handling systems including energy; deepwater 

 ports and related shore side connectivity; intermo- 

 dal alternatives optimized for energy conservation; 

 and shared freight/passenger systems. 



Urban transportation is already the focus of 

 much research and is particularly in need of inter- 

 modal total system integration. A major issue is 

 the question of the balance between public transit 

 and the auto as it relates to strategies for future 

 RD&D. Planning research is being conducted by 

 the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) and 

 the Urban Mass Transportation Administration 

 (UMTA) on the nature of the needed sharing be- 

 tween highways and mass transit, taking into ac- 

 count the city and urban structure. Other areas of 

 concern are terminals, intermodal connections and 

 surface interconnecting links for satellite airports. 

 FHWA, UMTA, the National Highway Traffic 

 Safety Administration (NHTSA), and the Office of 

 the Secretary are jointly working in this area. 



Impacts 



All modes of transport are influenced by the 

 energy consumed, the need to provide for safe 

 movement, and the pressures to minimize undesir- 

 able side efi'ects caused by pollution and noise. 



About half of the petroleum energy require- 

 ments for the United States is consumed by trans- 

 portation. Our transportation system developed in 

 an era when energy constraints were minimal. An 

 examination of the present system with present 

 energy costs and energy conservation in mind 

 quickly reveals high cost, much inefficiency, and 

 much energy waste as a result of this developmen- 

 tal history. It is imperative that conservation of 



TRANSPORTATION 159 



