al determinants of behavior also will be empha- 

 sized. Research on human memory, learning, con- 

 cept formation, and other cognitive processes 

 shows great vitality and these are priority areas. 



Social sciences. Research priorities within the 

 social sciences for the next 3 to 10 years will con- 

 tinue to emphasize basic research in economics, 

 efforts to understand social and political processes 

 in advanced industrial societies, and a continuing 

 effort to develop social science data resources. 

 Emerging areas of high priority research include 

 political economy, family decisionmaking, com- 

 plex organizations, and human environments. 



Research on political economy will emphasize 

 understanding the impact of governmental and 

 nonmarket decisionmaking on the economy, and 

 the effects of economic factors on political and 

 other nonmarket decisions. This work will entail 

 the development and testing of models integrating 

 a more varied set of factors than the more tradi- 

 tional economic models. 



Studies of family decisionmaking are moving 

 toward more rigorous and more realistic theoreti- 

 cal models but remain handicapped by data limita- 

 tions. A substantial investment is expected in fur- 

 ther theoretical development and in the production 

 of data pertaining to such decisions as family size, 

 labor force participation, residential location, and 

 household consumption. 



Research on complex organizations will empha- 

 size internal organization and decisionmaking pro- 

 cesses, interaction with other organizations, and 

 the influence of such organizations on public life 

 and on the lives of individual participants. Some 

 studies include governmental bureaucracies, with 

 emphasis on predicting decision outcomes as a 

 function of the constraints and conditions under 

 which governments operate. 



The study of human environments focuses on 

 human modifications of environmental conditions, 

 the impact of environmental change on human set- 

 tlement and land use, and on "environmental per- 

 ceptions" (what people perceive to be desirable or 

 undesirable settings), factors associated with varia- 

 tions in such perceptions, and the impact of such 

 perceptions on migration decisions, population 

 concentration, and corporate location decisions. 



Environmental biology. Research priorities in 

 environmental biology for the next 3 to 10 years 

 will continue to build on the new information and 

 recent developments in ecosystems studies, tropi- 

 cal and population biology, and physiological ecol- 



t>gy- 



Studies in the biological regulation of lake eco- 

 systems will emphasize collaborative research pro- 

 jects on key sites. Recent small research project 

 findings are leading to large scale approaches to 

 understand systemwide effects. 



While the initial biome studies have provided a 

 general understanding of the energetics of ecosys- 

 tems, they also found evidence to suggest, for 

 example, that individual species or groups of her- 

 bivores exert an inordinate control over this pro- 

 ductivity. Furthermore, it appears that the period of 

 active growth in certain plant species may control 

 the growth of neighboring species. Evaluation of 

 these effects will be emphasized. 



Recent data provide a sounder theoretical and 

 experimental basis for investigating the relation- 

 ship of spatial variability on ecosystem stability in 

 response to physical or biological perturbations. 

 Strengthened knowledge on the role of spatial- 

 temporal heterogeneity is essential to the develop- 

 ment of optimum strategies for reforestation and 

 wildlife management. 



Cultivated systems are taxonomically simple and 

 relatively easy to manipulate. Since these systems 

 pose ecologically interesting and socially important 

 challenges with respect to pest management and 

 maintenance of long-term productivity to crop 

 species, they will be utilized to provide a test sys- 

 tem for enhancing basic knowledge. 



The complex and relatively little-known humid 

 tropics are the sites of some of the most innovative 

 and revealing research in systematic biology, ecol- 

 ogy, and ecosystem science. Preliminary study of 

 tropic systems often has revealed that the grand 

 generalizations derived from the better studied 

 temperate systems do not apply. 



Surveys of primary gene products (proteins) in 

 natural populations have revealed significantly 

 more genetic variability than would be predicted 

 by current evolutionary theory. Research will be 

 directed toward an understanding of the biological 

 significance of mutations and their maintenance in 

 populations. 



Mathematical population theory will utilize new 

 techniques, developed by statisticians and 

 engineers to study animal populations. Power 

 spectrum analysis and bifurcation theory are two 

 examples that are now being usefully applied to 

 studies of the growth of plants in a fluctuating en- 

 vironment and to data for cycles of insect abun- 

 dance. 



Promising or vital research areas not now sup- 

 ported. The Foundation is the primary source of 

 support for basic research in the social sciences 

 and in environmental biology. Funding levels in 

 both are relatively low and are scaled, historically, 

 to individual project support. In such 

 circumstances, it becomes exceedingly difficult to 

 provide support for large-scale data resource 

 needs, or collaborative efforts in the social sci- 

 ences, or providing equipment to environmental 



NATIONAL SCIENCE FOUNDATION 209 



