698 TRANSURANIC ELEMENTS IN THE ENVIRONMENT 



TABLE 3 An Estimate of Cancer Deaths in the United States 

 Due to Fallout Plutonium 



*Cumulative organ dose to year 2000 based on inhalation exposure 

 from 1954 to 1973. Data from Bennett (1976). 



fProduct of individual dose and U.S. population of 2 x 10*. 



:t:Risk factors suggested by Mays (1976). 



§ Product of population dose and risk factor. Cancer death estimate 

 is uncorrected for prior death from other causes. 



the United States. On the basis of New York air samples, the ICRP lung model, and other 

 metabolic parameters previously described, Bennett (1976) has calculated cumulative 

 organ dose rates to the year 2000 for an individual exposed from 1954 through 1973. If 

 we multiply these doses by 200 million people, we have an estimate of the total man-rem 

 exposure resulting from plutonium fallout in the United States — an estimate that has 

 obvious limitations but is probably more accurate than many other factors that go into 

 the health-effects estimate. Multiplying this population dose by the cancer risk factors of 

 Mays (1976), we arrive at an estimate of 125 cancer deaths. Because of the difficulty in 

 defining a genetic effect and uncertainties in regard to the genetically effective dose from 

 transuranics, we did not attempt an estimate of genetic effects in Table 3; it is generally 

 agreed that such effects are probably "a minor part of the total" (Medical Research 

 Council, 1975). 



Mays' (1976) risk factors were used in Table 3 as the "best guesses" in our opinion. 

 Use of the most pessimistic estimates of Table 2 would have led to a maximum cancer 

 death count about four times higher. Neither estimate would constitute a detectable 

 perturbation on normal cancer death rates; the possibiHty of no cancer deaths from 

 fallout plutonium is not precluded. 



Acknowledgment 



This work was supported by the U. S. Department of Energy under contract 

 EY-76-C-06-1830. 



References 



Bair, W. J., 1974, Toxicology of Plutonium, /46?v. Radiat. Biol., 4: 255-315. 



, and J. M. Thomas, 1976, Prediction of the Health Effects of Inhaled Transuranium Elements 



from Experimental Animal Data, in Transuranium Nuclides in the Environment. Symposium 



Proceedings, San Irancisco, 1975, pp. 569-585, STl/PUB/410, International Atomic Energy 



Agency, Vienna. 

 Ballou, J. E., 1958, Effects of Age and Mode of Ingestion on Absorption of Plutonium, Proc. Sac. 



Exp. Biol. Med., 98: 726-727. 



