in the future We must invent some sort of shock 

 absorber to mitigate the effect that I am describ- 

 ing. 



Also, according to W. Dale Compton, Vice 

 President, Scientific Research, Ford Motor 

 Company, without a coordinated national 

 manpower policy, changes in funding patterns 

 can produce dislocations in university research 

 programs and thereby alter the availability of 

 new talent for industry. 



The source of funds inevitably influences how 

 many students can be trained in an area. While it 

 is true that the training of students in fields of low 

 priority is to be discouraged, changes in research 

 direction frequently occur in a time frame in 

 which the educational system cannot respond. 

 For example, we have moved quickly from 

 emphasizing materials to energy in our research 

 funding, but there appears to belittleplanningon 

 the part of any of the agencies on how to 

 accomplish this without causing major dis- 

 locations to the graduate research activities. I 

 would strongly recommend that serious con- 

 sideration be given to finding a way to stabilize 

 the long-term research needs of the university 

 training programs upon which we are all depen- 

 dent for new employees, without making them 

 subject to the rapid fluctuations that occur in the 

 research missions of the agencies. 



Addressing himself to a different aspect of 

 national manpower policy, James Hillier, Ex- 

 ecutive Vice President, Research and Engineer- 

 ing, RCA, discussed what he sees as 

 Government-induced inflation in the cost of 

 professional and technical manpower. 



The dominant cost in any research is the cost of 

 professional and technical manpower. This cost 

 is determined by a relatively free market, that is, it 

 responds to the balance of supply and demand. 

 Unfortunately, the supply can respond only 

 slowly to changes in demand due to the long 

 period (6-9 years) between the point when an 

 individual commits to a professional career in 

 science or technology and the time when he 

 enters the market. The Government has tended to 

 ignore the dynamics of the system in the planning 

 of its technical programs. The growth of military 



and aerospace R&D created a demand for 

 professionals that greatly exceeded the capabili- 

 ty of the system to supply them with the result that 

 the rate of increase of cost substantially exceed- 

 ed the national inflation rate. Similarly, the rapid 

 and highly publicized reduction in aerospace 

 engineering greatly reduced engineering 

 enrollments. The resulting artificial shortage is 

 just now moving into industry. This, by itself, is 

 inflationary. 



Unfortunately, there are strong indications that 

 the Government will make matters worse by its 

 stepped-up programs on energy research. I 

 recognize that the primary effect is in engineer- 

 ing. However, in industry the inflation rapidly 

 spreads into the basic and exploratory research 

 areas. The result is a steady reduction in the 

 annual effort that is roughly equal to the 

 difference between the national and professional 

 inflation rates. The total industry reduction is 

 greater because of the abrupt discontinuance of 

 basic and exploratory research when the steady 

 reduction takes the effort below the "critical 

 mass" or the fortunes of the company require it to 

 "defer" noncritical expenses. Either case is 

 tantamount to permanent termination. 



The above paragraphs typify respondents' 

 concerns related to national manpower policies 

 for scientific and technical personnel. 



CONCLUDING REMARKS 



This chapter provides views from each 

 research sector on the role of scientific and 

 technical manpower and the role ofinstitutional 

 environments in maintaining the vitality of the 

 research system. Representative views appear 

 for most of the major issues and problems 

 concerning vitality. Suggested solutions to the 

 issues and problems appeared in about one- 

 third of the letters. Table 4-1 lists some of these 

 solutions. Frequently these suggested solutions 

 were mentioned without any elaboration. In 

 cases where no solution was offered 

 respondents often said they saw no solution or 

 that any meaningful solution would require 

 further analysis and study by the scientific 

 community and the public. 



VITALITY OF THE RESEARCH SYSTEM 



55 



