3. With respect to tanker spills above 42,000 gallons, the results 

 indicate that for a small find (500 MM bbls in place) likelihood 

 of no tanker spills is about .7, the likelihood of one such spill 

 is about .25, and it is quite unlikely there would be more than 

 one spill. However, for a large find (10,000 MM bbls in place) 

 there will with high probability be somewhere between 4 and 10 

 spills, with the probability rather equally spread over these 

 possibilities. The estimated size of these spills is spread 

 over three orders of magnitude, with a mean of two million 

 gallons. [MM bbls = millions of barrels. --Ed.] 



4. With respect to tanker spills below 42,000 gallons, the number 

 of spills is much larger; in the hundreds for the small find 



and thousands for the large find. However, most of these spills are 

 quite small. The mean size is 318 gallons and it is quite likely 

 that an individual spill will be smaller than the mean. For an 

 offshore mono-buoy platform (SBM) total volume spilled will 

 almost certainly be lower for an SBM installation as opposed to an 

 equivalent shoreside terminal. [Probably due to a larger number 

 of transshipment operations necessary to get large tankers into 

 a shore facil ity.--Ed.] 



5. With respect to platform spills over 42,000 gallons, the analysis 

 indicates that for a small find, there is a .75 probability of 



no such spill, a .2 chance of one such spill, and it is quite 

 unlikely that we will experience two or more such spills. For a 

 large find, with high probability we will experience between one and 

 seven such spills with the probability rather equally spread over 

 the possibilities. The size of these spills is spread over two 

 orders of magnitude, with a mean of about one million gallons and 

 a standard deviation of 1.8 million gallons. The probability 

 that such a spill will be less than 100,000 gallons is about .2. 

 The probability that it will be greater than 5 million gallons 

 is .05. 



6. With respect to offshore pipeline spills over 42,000 gallons, the 

 probability that we will have no large pipeline spills from a small 

 find landed by pipeline is .75. The probability we will have one 

 spill is about .2 and it is rather unlikely we will have more than 

 one such spill. For a large find landed by pipeline, with high 

 probability we will have somewhere between 1 and 9 large pipe- 

 line spills, with the probability rather equally spread over these 

 possibilities. The size of these spills is dispersed over an 

 extremely large range. The size of these spills is not easily 

 determined. The mean is 1.9 million gallons; the standard de- 

 viation is 3.9 million gallons. 



7. With respect to offshore production spills less than 42,000, 

 the total number of both small platform and small pipeline 

 spills will be in the hundreds for a small find and in the 

 thousands for a large find. According to the EPA data, approxi- 

 mately 90% of these spills will emanate from the platforms. 



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