Areas in which more than 20% of the spills come ashore in 

 winds over 12 knots are localized in the Charleston-Hog Island 

 areas once again with little seasonal variation. However, as 

 might be expected given the smaller distances, the initial 

 impact areas are more sensitive to initial spill size. The 

 smaller the area, the more important the spill spread is rela- 

 tive to spill transport. 



The foregoing analyses are meant to be exemplary in nature. The choice 

 of sample harbors does not imply advocating any of these locations. Rather, 

 the analyses undertaken are intended to be models of the sort of work which 

 could be done in any oil handling area under consideration. 



The possibility that oil spills from the offshore production areas 



would affect the natural environment is summarized by BLM (1, p. 92-94): 



In summary, it seems reasonable to conclude that although there 

 is a 39% probability that at least one oil spill greater than 

 1,000 barrels will reach shore during the anticipated 25-year 

 production life of this area, any effects on the nearshore or 

 onshore environment would be due to the residual oil, and not 

 the more toxic lighter fractions which would have already dis- 

 appeared into the offshore environment. In the worst case, it 

 took four days for one of the 2,800 hypothetical spills to reach 

 shore, however, the lighter, more toxic fractions of crude oil 

 boil off (evaporate) during the first few hours of an oil spill 

 leaving the heavier, less toxic hydrocarbons remaining. 



It also seems reasonable to conclude that, due to the weathering 

 process and the constant reduction in the amount of remaining 

 residual hydrocarbons combined with the constantly improving 

 effectiveness of oil spill containment and recovery equipment, 

 the impacts associated with an oil spill reaching a shoreline 

 would be relatively small. It is possible that impacts could 

 occur in the form of well -weathered oil reaching shore in beach 

 and wetlands areas. In addition, that well -weathered oil that 

 enters the water column and reaches the ocean floor could impact 

 various shellfish and finfish habitat areas. 



Adverse impacts from low-volume, chronic oil leaks from pipelines, gas/ 



oil separation plants, pumping stations, and ship support facilities may 



prove to be significant on a local level although precise statistics as to 



what levels of oil leaks to expect are not available. Data for oil pipeline 



45 



