Studies undertaken by BLM predict a variety of likely oil spill trajec- 

 tories if a spill were to occur in the OCS Lease Sale No. 40 area. Spills 

 would move generally southwest and likely make contact with beaches in Dela- 

 ware, Maryland, or further south and would generally require about two weeks 

 to do so. It must be recalled that the areas which will be subjected to 

 exploratory drilling are located from 47 to 92 miles off the coasts of New 

 Jersey and Delaware and thus minimize onshore/nearshore impacts due to dis- 

 tance from shore. A complete statistical analysis of the likelihood of 

 spills contacting the shore cannot be given here but is presented in the BLM 

 Final EIS for Lease Sale Mo. 40 (1 , pp. 56-94). However, the following gen- 

 eralizations may be stated: 



a. the probability that a major spill (if one occurs) will come 

 ashore for the entire project area is 10%. 



b. the probability that a major spill will impact one of the ten 

 natural environmental resource categories is shown below 

 (includes consideration of seasonal vulnerability): ( 1 ,p. 88) 



Group Probability (%) 



1. Endangered Birds 1.5 



2. Migratory Waterbirds 4.0 



3. Shellfisheries 1.0 



4. Coastal Finfish 7.0 



5. Estuarine Finfish 1.0 



6. Wetlands 3.0 



7. Wildlife Refuges and Management Areas 6.0 



8. Beaches with High-Intensity Use 2.0 



9. Parks and Recreation Areas 5.0 

 10. Mid-Atlantic Bight Dumpsites 12.0 



The resource characteristics of the Mid Atlantic onshore and offshore 

 environment were categorized into ten groups in order to evaluate the poten- 

 tial impacts if a spill did reach a critical natural environment. Among 



40 



