San Miguel and Oak Ridge leases, Santa Rosa-Cortez North tracts, and 

 Santa Rosa-Cortez South tracts, plus remaining unleased tracts in the 

 Channel. Scenarios of production based on phasing of fields for both 

 20 and 40-year field lives were developed by the Task Force, Scenario 

 II, calculated from USGS production estimates assumes a 20-year field 

 life (most probable in the opinion of industry representatives) and 

 as umes that production will vary from 110,000 BOPD in the period 1980 

 to 2000 A.D. to 20,500 BOPD from 2005 to 2025 A. D.^^ This recognizes the 

 probable scheduling of development of various fields. Using these pro- 

 duction assumptions and present surplus refining capacity data, the 

 Task Force projected construction of a Union Oil processing and storage 

 facility at Mandalay Beach and additional storage at other locations. 



No other processing, storage, or marine terminals are projected because 



32 

 of the existing surplus capacity in the county. 



There are several documents which attempt to review the relation- 

 ship between the anticipated Alaskan North Slope (ANS) petroleum 

 production and the refinery/demand capacities in California and PADD V. 

 A survey of specifically relevant documents indicates a rather high 

 degree of uncertainty in establishing a fixed value for the expected 

 surplus crude oil (See Table 6 for examples of estimated ranges). Com- 

 bined OCS and ANS production is expected to exceed PADD V market demands, 

 hence refinery capacities. At least two sources contain extensive dis- 

 cussions of the complex factors that will operate, to a presently 

 unknown extent, to determine the market surplus for California refinery 



capacity. The documents are North American Crude Oil Supply and Trans- 



33 

 portation: A California View, and U.S. Department of the Interior 



42 



