811 



SURPLUS VERSUS SHORTAGE 



It is a characteristic of technology that it cannot be exploited in the 

 same way or to the same degi-ee in all parts of the world. Effective use 

 of technology relates to climate and geography, level of education and 

 technical training, ability and willingness to adopt new methods, re- 

 ceptivity to new diets, relative accessibility of information, and deci- 

 sions as to the extent and kind of mechanical equipment to acquire. 

 Given the proper combination of these factors— and particularly the 

 careful use of irrigated water and fertilizers— the genetic advances of 

 .the "Green Revolution" can yield a two- to four-fold increase in grain 

 production. Historically, the United States has been a grain exporting 

 nation. Other nations, like Australia and Canada, have likewise 

 achieved sustained surpluses. These have been both a source of income 

 from export, and a means of saving lives in times of acute or chronic 

 food shortage in other countries. Those countries that have vigorously 

 accepted the opportunity of the "Green Revolution" have converted 

 from conditions of shortage to conditions of surplus and will not need 

 to rely on foreign surpluses. But as they have achieved surpluses them- 

 selves, they need to find markets for them. Here they come into com- 

 petition with countries long accustomed to exporting surpluses, intro- 

 ducing complications into the global picture of supply and demand. 



On a smaller scale, it is possible for a single country to be divided 

 into regions that are large producers of surplus, and regions that are 

 in serious shortage : for example, West and East Pakistan. 



In some countries, transportation facilities are so poor that shortage 

 and surplus situations can occur locally ; this was long the situation in 

 China, for example. 



Unless surplus grain becomes available to those who need the food, 

 it fails to serve its functional purpose. When grain remains in surplus 

 it tends to fall in price, thereby reducing the incentive of those em- 

 barking on programs of expanded food production. The success of 

 the Green Revolution depends substantially on the assurance that 

 economic and administrative arrangements are in operation to deliver 

 the product to the consumer. 



ECONOMIC DISLOCATIONS 



U.S. contributions of grain to developing countries have been dis- 

 tributed in these countries by sales to consumers, with the proceeds 

 used for development purposes. When these countries, by virtue of 

 their own advances in productivity, are able to supply their own needs, 

 and even to export surplus grain, the revenues they formerly received 

 for development will be cut off. There will be no further opportunity to 

 convert revenues from the sale of P.L. 480 foods into investment cap- 

 ital for urban industrialization. It might be possible to replace these 

 funds in any of several ways: for example (a) by taxing the exports 

 of grain surpluses, (b) by ensuring that the proceeds from overseas 

 sales are channeled into urban industrialization (or at a minimum into 

 the kinds of farm mechanization that are least likely to reduce labor 

 requirements), or (c) by taxing the producing farmers. Historically, 

 the need for encouraging production of grain has been so keen that 

 farmers have largely been exempted from taxation ; accordingly, re- 



