812 



sistance is to be expected to any change in this policy, particularly 

 since affluent farmers largely comprise the leadership and the apex of 

 the power structure of the developing countries. An export tax would 

 be equally unpopular for the same reasons. Earmarking of proceeds 

 from overseas grain sales would be difficult administratively. 



An internal dislocation also results from the Green Revolution. The 

 more prosperous farmers are best able to exploit the new grains. They 

 are able and likely to invest their expanding income in capital equip- 

 ment for further increased production. Most farm capital equipment 

 replaces human labor, particularly the kinds of capital equipment use- 

 ful on larger farms. Cash and credit resources will tend to oe concen- 

 trated on the larger farms, while the increased productivity will re- 

 sult in lowered grain prices, thereby discouraging and inconvenienc- 

 ing the smaller farmers. Considerable emphasis is placed, in current 

 literature, on the need to limit farm mechanization to equipment 

 that increases productivity per acre, but does not replace manpower.** 

 How feasible this policy is remains to be seen. 



Markets for a country's grain must be found primarily in the cities, 

 but if the bulk of revenue accruing from the Green Revolution goes 

 to the larger farmers, and is invested in further agricultural produc- 

 tivity, financial resources must be found elsewhere to invest in urban 

 industrialization so that there will be an urban market for the new 

 farm abundance. The prospect is that with P.L. 480 funds cut off, the 

 available resources for urban development will be less, not more. 



The question of the balance-of -payments position of the LDCs is a 

 constant concern of international development. Most of the LDCs 

 still depend on agricultural products to earn them the foreign exr 

 change to pay for the imports of the many items essential to develop- 

 ment. Others have oil and mineral resources desired by the developed 

 countries. Some realize considerable earning through tourism, while 

 others would like to develop tourist attractions. By and large, how- 

 ever, the future of the developing countries is tied to their ability to 

 expand their export trade. The Pearson Report showed, for example, 

 that the growth rates of individual countries correlate more closely 

 with export performance than with any other economic index.^^ ; : ' 



From 1953 to 1968 exports from the LDCs grew at an average rate 

 of 4.7 percent a year." In the decade of the 1960s the export earnings 

 of the LDCs grew at an annual rate of more than 6 percent. 



At the same time, however, the total volume of world trade was 

 growing at an even faster pace. In relative terms, the LDCs were 

 lagging behind. Moreover, tne terms of trade — that is the prices of 

 their imports as compared with the prices of their exports — moved 

 against them. The value of their exports incresised, but much less 

 rapidly than that of world trade as a whole. The problem was com- 



Sounded by the instability of world commodity prices, so vital to the 

 #DCs, which earn some 90 percent of their foreign exchange from 



■ •'The critical Importance of finding ways of creating more rather than fewer Jobs was 

 affirmed repeatedly by speakers at the 12th World Conference of the Society for Interna- 

 tional Development in Ottawa, May 16-19, 1971. (The theme of the conference was "De- 

 velopment Targets for the TO's : Jobs and Justice".) 



••Pearson et al. "Partners in Development. Report of the Commission on International 

 Development," op. clt., page 45. 



« Ibid. 



