819 



Future growth rates might be even lower.^° When these possibilities 

 are balanced against the demand for imports by the LDCs, it is dif- 

 ficult to see any gain in the latters' trading position. It is more likely, 

 in the short run at any rate, that the developing countries will be 

 thrown back on themselves. This is not necessarily a bad thing, again 

 considering the short run. For the developing countries would be 

 compelled to look to their own internal commercial markets as a force 

 for growth. They could explore the possibilities which do exist for 

 expanding agricultural trade among themselves. In addition, a num- 

 ber of the developing countries have the potential to substitute locally 

 produced agricultural items — besides cereals — for commodities which 

 they now import. If the shortage of foreign exchange helps in the 

 realization of these possibilities, the result could actually be helpful 

 to the LDCs involved. 



In the long run, however, a collaborative attempt will have to be 

 made by the developed and the developing countries to solve the 

 latters' foreign exchange problems, lest the process of development 

 grind to a halt. The United States would seem to have a stake m the 

 success of any such collaborative effort for two reasons. First, this 

 country has been committed to international development as a corner- 

 stone of its foreign policy for two decades. If development stagnates 

 for lack of foreign exchange, U.S. policy will have received a stunning 

 setback and will have to search for a new direction, a task which 

 can be accomplished neither quickly nor easily. Second, if the de- 

 veloped countries of the West refuse to let the LDCs earn their way 

 in world markets, the developing countries might well conclude that 

 it is the desire of the richer countries to keep the LDCs in a perpetual 

 state of dependency. If such an idea is given any credence it could be 

 most damaging to U.S. relations with these countries. The poorer 

 countries have a better bargaining position since the advent of the 

 Green Revolution. They will also have a greater incentive to press their 

 position forcefully, assuming that the new agriculture will have cre- 

 ated new jobs. 



The Necessity for Balanced Development 



Finding a solution to the food/population dilemma is the central 

 problem of international development. It is interwoven with every 

 other aspect of development. Thus it will not be solved in isolation. If 

 population growth is checked effectively, and the growth and diversi- 

 fication of agriculture goes, forward as hoped, the entire development 

 process will benefit immensely. On the other hand, for the new agri- 

 cultural revolution to make its most forceful impact, there must be 

 enormous developments outside agriculture. Asian peasantry has dem- 

 onstrated that it is not as resistant to change as it was so often thought 

 to be. It has responded to the economic incentives offered by the Green 

 Revolution ; these incentives would scarcely be present, however, with- 

 out the development of a market economy. Either the LDCs must be 

 able to earn the foreign exchange to purchase the inputs necessary for 

 agricultural progress, or these imports will have to be produced domes- 

 tically, usually with foreign aid funds. Such domestic production helps 

 establish sufficient purchasing power in the domestic market so that 



"5 Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations. "Provlaional Indicative 

 World Food Plan for Agricultural Development." Vol. 1, op clt., page 21. 



