1061 



to interpret its meaning and formulate a definition with precision, 

 seems next to impossible. 



Another characteristic of brain drain that further complicates the 

 problem of definition is determination of "need" and "demand" in 

 estimating the value of lost professionals. George Baldwin gives this 

 explanation. Where there is a general shortage of university graduates 

 in the professional fields among the LDCs, then any loss through 

 migration hurts. This is the case with sub-Sahara Africa, where pro- 

 fessional graduates are "desperately short" in supply. But, for every 

 LDC with an overall shortage of professional manpower today, there 

 are probably two with surpluses, either present or impending. Bald- 

 win applies the criteria of "human needs" and "effective demand" in 

 measuring the degree of loss. Looking at pure "need" in the develop- 

 ing countries for physicians, engineers, agricultural scientists and 

 technicians, economists, science teachers for secondary schools, and the 

 like, he said, it is easy to see shortages. But, looking at the number of 

 unfilled jobs, or the number of university graduates who have difficulty 

 finding what they consider to be acceptable employment, then sur- 

 pluses often appear. Thus, "part of the argument over whether or not 

 a brain drain exists depends on whether one looks at a society's 'human 

 needs' or an economy's 'effective demand'." Baldwin holds the view 

 that the latter is a more relevant and realistic test to apply. (Others, 

 arguing along lines of the chicken-and-the-egg proposition, may place 

 primary stress on "need" as the correct criterion for judging loss 

 through brain drain.) The real question, Baldwin says, is how rapidly 

 "effective demand" for high-level manpower can be made to grow. 

 "To ask this," he concludes, "is to ask the riddle of development." ^° 



Difficulty in making qualitative judgments on the character of mi- 

 grating talent complicates still further the problem of definition. Loss 

 of the scientifically and technologically trained leadership talent which 

 is needed in building a scientific-technological infrastructure can im- 

 pede development and accordingly meets the criteria for what con- 

 stitutes brain drain. But how can this loss be determined accurately? 

 -This small class of "key men," as George Baldwin refers to the vital 

 component of the technological elite, while not in the genius category, 

 constitute only a small fraction (5-10 percent) of all professional 

 migrants. Gifted, educated, experienced leaders of this type are scarce 

 almost everywhere, including in the United States. They are, in Bald- 

 win's words, "the brains that really count" because "they have such 

 high leverage." Outstanding individuals, they are unlikely to be re- 

 placed satisfactorily, even if a country has dozens of men with the same 

 educational qualifications waiting to step into their vacated post. Loss 

 of such "key men" does not show up in migration statistics, and the 

 only way to judge the impact of loss is through detailed qualitative 

 studies on important institutions, field by field and coimtry by country. 

 According to Baldwin, "No one has made such studies on more than a 

 casual basis and it seems very improbable that anyone will." Accord- 

 ingly, students of the brain drain problem fall back upon the imprecise 

 assumption that migration of the critical elite would be approximately 

 proportional to the total number of professional migrants 



51 



K> Baldwin, op. clt., p. 362. 



61 Baldwin, op. clt., pp. 362-363. 



