1415 



The problem with foreign poHcy is like Mark Twain's remark about 

 the dictionary — "interesting reading but kind of various." All kinds 

 of missions interact. Policy merges with operations. Short-range 

 policies tend to shape and prejudge long-range policies. Long-range 

 studies have important bearing on short-range policy decisions. Politi- 

 cal questions merge with economics — and equally with technology. 



Effective foreign policy depends on the capacity to predict events in the social 

 affairs of men, and a better capacity to predict would moan better and more 

 effective foreign policy. But more is required than simple factual information.'*' 



It would seem that forecasting the future diplomatic environment 

 and its problems is vastly more than political divination: the arcane 

 art of sorting out human motivations is often furthered b}^ asking the 

 economic question — who benefits? Another area with great predictive 

 power is technology, which determines what is or is becoming techni- 

 cally practicable. A policy planning staff needs to be able to combine 

 expertise in these three areas of politics, economics, and technology. 

 Most problems of foreign policy involve all three. 



The Nature oj ike Foreign Policy Planning Process 



Taken as a whole, long-range pohcy planning appears to consist of an 

 iterative set of steps leading to decisionmaking on specific issues to 

 achieve progress toward national goals in the face of the prevailing 

 circumstances and \\Tthin the limits of available resources. The 

 process is iterative because some information is needed to identify 

 the issues to be analyzed, and the analysis of issues requires further 

 information. However, in general the information reeds consist of at 

 least the following: 



— An understanding of the total decisionmaking process 

 involved ; 



— A formulation of relevant national goals; 

 — A characterization of present and probable future prevailing 

 circumstances; 



— The relation of the issue in question to all of these ; and 

 — An elaboration of the factors that defhie the changing nature 

 of the issue. 

 The decision process itself seems to involve— apart from the con- 

 tinumg review of the information inputs: 



— Selection of a salient issue for analysis on the basis of general 

 criteria of importance and probable future urgency; 



— Integration of the parts of the information available bearing 

 on the issue and the search for further information; 



— Analysis of the information to identify the decisive elements; 

 — Formulation of alternative possible courses of action; 

 — The ordering of the information in relation to the alternatives; 

 — Evaluation and comparison of alternatives as to probable 

 costs and benefits, technical feasibilit} , and political accepta- 

 biUty; and 



—Selection of one or more preferred alternatives for further 

 analysis and presentation to the ultimate decisionmaker. 



131 Ibid., p. 565. 



