614 



such as the Miniiteman complexes, the DEW Line, air defense sys- 

 tems, the Polaris system, and nuclear test detection systems. Othere 

 include spacecraft like the Apollo series, global communications net- 

 works, air traffic control systems, a global weather forecasting net- 

 work, the Interstate Highway System, electric power grids, and the 

 complexes of multipurpose dams on the Tennessee and other major 

 rivers. 



The willingness and albility of American society to concentrate re- 

 sources on miajor technological systems like these has been a striking 

 phenomenon of recent years. Moreover, each of these large endeavors 

 produces in its wake an array of lesser innovations useful elsewhere, 

 and a technological "multiplier" effect analogous to the Keynesian eco- 

 nomic multiplier seems to result, raising the general level of the Na- 

 tion's technological culture to new orders of capability. 



Large technological projecte of an inlierently international char- 

 acter impose burdens on the diplomat. Problems and benefits must be 

 shared equitably by many nations. Acceptance of roles of participa- 

 tion must be negotiated. New meclianisms of diplomacy are required. 



COMPLEXrrY 



The historical evolution of teclinology appears to have followed a 

 series of cycles. An initial stage was the development and use by man 

 of simple manual tools. Then the effectiveness of the tools was multi- 

 plied by the use of energy sources — horses, wind, waterpower, steam, 

 and electricity. Progressively, tools became more highly specialized 

 and explicit in purpose. Then, tools of different functional purpose 

 were integrated into large systems—such as the assembly line, rail- 

 road and telephone systems, and petroleum pipelines and refineries. 

 The most recent step has been the introduction of computers into these 

 large systems, to automate the making of routine decisions in their 

 management. These systems have now become so complicated in design 

 and function that even to build them has come to require elaborate 

 systems of planning and control, and these have also required the 

 assistance of computers. 



Particularly in the fields of military weaponry and space explora- 

 tion have systems of extreme complexity emerged. A typical air de- 

 fense system might extend over a thousand miles, with hundreds of 

 persons in each of dozens of stations, served by electronic sensors, tele- 

 phone lines, computers to convert signals into readable forms, cathode 

 ray tubes to display information visually, and computers to translate 

 information into instructions for actions to be taken by interceptors, 

 ground-to-air missiles, and other tracking stations. Equally complex 

 is the arrangement of a manned space flight. Taken together, the com- 

 puter and electronic communications have greatly enlarged man's 

 ability to design and operate complex and far-flung systems. 



The evolution of the systems concept imposes burdens and offers 

 opportunity to the diplomat. On the one hand, complexities of systems 

 design present formidable obstacles to quick understanding of these 

 large enterprises. On the other hand, it has been suggested that the 

 disciplines and orderly methodologies they require can make a direct 

 contribution to the processes of diplomatic analysis and problem 

 solving. 



