82^^^ 



and Planning (Document E/C6/102), the combination of rural-to- 

 urban migration and population growth has swamped the facilities 

 of the LDCs. The report estimates that from 1920 to the year 2000 

 the urban population of the LDCs will have grown from 100 million 

 to an estimated 2 billion, a twentyfold increase. In developed coun- 

 tries, for the same time period, the increase is put at fourfold. This 

 staggering population shift in the LDCs has created a housing situa- 

 tion verging on disaster in some countries. During the next 20 years 

 it will be necessary to double the housing, sanitation, education, 

 power, and other facilities. As U Thant puts it, there are "exploding 

 cities in unexploding economies" ; thus the prospects are dim of meet- 

 ing the needs of the millions who will flock to the cities of the under- 

 developed world. Bombay and Calcutta may reach the fantastic 

 totals of 20 and 30 millions respectively before the end of the cen- 

 tury.®® Acute threats to health are caused by the overcrowding and 

 poor sanitation in the cities of the LDCs. The pollution, traflEic con- 

 gestion, and noise common to the big cities of the developed countries 

 are engulfing cities of the developing world as well. 



The changing pattern of population distribution in the LDCs is 

 chronological as well as geographical. An increasing percentage of 

 the population is young, and eats but does not produce. The nonpro- 

 ductive children are a greater burden in the underdeveloped countries 

 than in the developed ones. For every 100 productive adults there are 

 85 noiiproducers in the LDCs, consisting of 79 children and 6 aged 

 persons. In a developed country the ratio tends to be about 100 produc- 

 tive adults to 57 nonproducers. Since developed countries often extend 

 the nonproductive period through age 20, a more accurate figure 

 might show 100 to 76 for such countries.^"" Whatever ratio is selected, 

 however, the age composition of the LDCs compares unfavorably 

 with that of the developed countries in terms of producers and con- 

 sumers. In addition to imposing a greater burden on the producers, 

 this type of age distribution also means that income goes for sub- 

 sistence, leaving less savings for investment, so necessary to develop- 

 ment. Furthermore, the greater the percentage of the population 

 entering the years of fertility compared with those growing beyond 

 their fertile years, the greater the pressures for huge population 

 growth. 



Population growth generates many physical and social problems."^ 

 Not only must an increasing population be fed, sheltered, and clothed, 

 but it must be educated, and jobs must be found for those of employ- 

 able age. More and more of this increasing population is jammed into 

 cities, compounding the difficulty of feeding and housing, education, 

 health care, and employment, and putting tremendous pressures on 

 the existing social and political structure. 



Another source of pressure is technological change itself, which 

 caused problems in the industrialized countries during their own era 



»» Report quoted In "Survey of International Development," Vol. VI, No. 7, (Sept 15, 

 1969). page 2. 



'<» .lean Bourgeois-Pichat. "Population Growth and Development," International Con- 

 ciliation. (No. 556. January, 1966). page 46. 



'01 Professor Philip Hauser has added the oategory of population "rtisplosion" to th^t of 

 explo'slon and Implosion (urbanization). By disploslon he means an Increasing diversity of 

 population who will be sharing the same living space. This diversity encompasses culture, 

 race, ethnicity, values, religion, and similar categories. Presumably this diversity will also 

 be a source of domestic and international tension. 



