857 



within a country. The already evident flight from the farms to the cit- 

 ies is likely to intensify, with unemployment increasing in both poor 

 rural areas and cities. All of these effects call for mediation and correc- 

 tive action by the LDC governments, and in some cases for hard deci- 

 sions on the part of political leaders. If the alternative is between gov- 

 ernmental overthrow and outside assistance, it would seem to be 

 important for the United States and its diplomats to know what form 

 such assistance should appropriately take. It would seem also to be im- 

 portant to know in which countries such outside assistance would be 

 likely to be effective, and where it would be merely support for a losing 

 cause. Among the kinds of support that have been mentioned are : Im- 

 proved credit resources more widely available at regional and local 

 banking levels ; more widespread and longer education of the popula- 

 tion; encouragement of the use of labor-intensive farm equipment; 

 assistance to small farmers in the exploitation of the new genetic forms 

 of grain; increased opportunities for rural industry; improved ar- 

 rangements for storing surplus grains and preventing losses to pests: 

 better arrangements and facilities for the marketing of agricultural 

 products; and above all, a strong administration of government, 

 equipped with adequate taxing power and management skills to dis- 

 tribute equitably the costs and gains of the Green Revolution. 



Lester R. Brown, author of "Seeds of Change," cites the international 

 rice market as an example of the problems and opportunities of an 

 equitable marketing of agricultural commodities. The world rice mar^ 

 ket, always sensitive, "appears to be headed for a difficult period with 

 the amount of rice available for export at * * * reasonable price almost 

 certain to exceed import needs." Japan, he goes on to say, is a high- 

 income country that is a major consumer ; Japan is not only self-suffi- 

 cient in rice, but is subsidizing exports ; yet the internal price of rice in 

 Japan is nearly triple the current world market price. The effect ef this 

 situation is that the rice-producing LDCs are denied the Japanese rice 

 market ; consumers in Japan pay more for their staple ; and the United 

 States finds it necessary to extend dollar uid to the LDCs because they 

 are unable to sell their product. Moreover, as the Green Revolution goes 

 on its way, these conditions wiU appear in corn, wheat, and other 

 grains.^*^ 



One question, from the point of view of the Department of State, is 

 how U.S. policy should be represented in the LDCs on agricul- 

 tural matters. Should historic policies of encouraging U.S. 

 exports and prices of agricultural commodities be continued, or should 

 there be a modification in these policies to accomplish other foreign 

 policy objectives? A close reading of the pertinent section of the 

 Macomber report "^ does not reveal an intention to respond to the kind 

 of challenge raised by Lester Brown's study. Emphasis appears to be 

 on the strengthening of the U.S. economic position in agri- 

 culture, rather than searching for a rational accommodation of inter- 

 national interests in stabilizing and strengthening commodity markets. 

 The effect of such a policy would seem to be to transfer the costs of 

 LDC development to the taxpayer, and to the consumer of protected 

 agricultural commodities, while running the risk of creating revolu- 



"• Brown "Seeds of Change," op. clt, pages 190-194. 



i« Diplomacy for the 1970's — A Program of Management Reform In the Department of 

 State. Op. clt., page 475. 



S7-4nn n - 77 - 1 7 



