861 



and procedures to increase the effectiveness of their technical assistance for 

 fertility reduction programs. Multilateral assistance through intergovernmental 

 agencies will often be more acceptable than bilateral assistance to developing 

 countries ; therefore it is important to improve its quality. 



A United Nations agency (such as the World Bank) should take the lead in 

 preparing a world budget of needs during the next two decades to carry out pro- 

 grams of fertility and mortality reduction in aU developing countries. [Such a 

 budget would include] provision for research ; training ; collection and analysis 

 of demographic data ; public education and communications ; contraceptive ma- 

 terials ; services of physicians, paramedical and other personnel ; transportation 

 and other expenses ; program evaluation ; and welfare policies that would reduce 

 the desired numbers of children and are feasible in different countries * * *.^ 



Political and Diplomatic Prohlerm of the Food/People Equation 



Clearly, the two global tasks of producing enough but not too much 

 food to feed the world's population, and providing incentives and 

 means for the world's population to hold itself within reasonable 

 bounds, are a tremendous challenge for modern diplomacy. The re- 

 wards of success are less impressive than the terrible consequences of 

 failure. There is a regrettable tendency on the part of mankind to 

 respond eagerly to rewarding opportunities, but to ignore the pros- 

 pect of misfortune and delay action to avert it until convinced of its 

 reality by its actual onset. 



Kationally, men can already perceive the adverse human conse- 

 quences of over-population. But there is a countervailing recognition 

 that there are also adverse consequences of a stable population. Popu- 

 lation growth in some instances is a powerful engine of economic 

 growth and expansion. The developed countries have not vet accepted 

 the consequences of a steady state either in the numbers of their popu- 

 lation or in their industrial productivity. The alternatives that face 

 mankind today are growth or no growth, and either one presents its 

 problems. The logic of the situation is that soon or late mankind must 

 accept the limits of the physical world. In a finite world, infinitely 

 continued expansion is an impossibility. The next question is whether 

 there is at any given time an optimum size of global population. (And 

 mdeed, also, an optimum level of affluence!) If growth in numbers 

 must stop, then when would be the best time to stop it ? By what cri- 

 teria is this decision to be made? Is it the same decision for all coun- 

 tries? Is the final result the same for all time ? And, how is the decision 

 to be reached and then given practical effect ? 



It is evident that the nations of the world cannot ignore each other's 

 wishes in this matter. Population pressure in one country (for example 

 East Pakistan) cannot help exerting pressure on its neighbors (for 

 example India). Population differences make bad neighbors, just as 

 affluence and poverty make bad neighbors. This dilemma must be re- 

 solved cooperatively if it is to be resolved at all. It will be resolved 

 either rationally by agreement among nations and an orderly process 

 of implementation ; or it is likely to be resolved irrationally by war, 

 disease, and social disorder within and among nations. 



Given these somber conclusions, it would seem to be advantageous 

 for U.S. long-range policy to search out and exploit every available 

 opportunity to establish a solid and scientific, factual base of informa- 

 tion about the food/population equation, for individual nations, for the 



'*' "Slowing Population Growth : Recommendations from a Special Study." News Re- 

 port. Nationa l Ac ademy of Sciences-National Academy of Engineering-National Research 

 Council. (Vol. XXI, No. 6, June-July, 1971), page 7. 



