1310 



The combination of these three factors has created a situation in the 

 minerals field akin to the 1973-74 crisis in oil. The LDCs have power- 

 ful bargaining leverage, as the Arabs have already demonstrated. Ap- 

 plied in the minerals field this leverage could have far-reaching adverse 

 economic and political consequences for the industrial nations. The 

 oil situation, Bergsten wrote, is the "prototype" : "Oil may be merely 

 the start." ^'^ 



"We are not in a minerals crisis at the moment," said Dr. John D. 

 Morgan, Jr., Acting Director of the Bureau of Mines, "but we must 

 take cautionary action to avoid being in one a short distance down the 

 road." What worries U.S. officials is that a cartel of nations having 

 control over the bulk of supplies of a given mineral will, indeed, follow 

 the Arab example, and, as one press report put it, "try to blackmail 

 the rest of the world." *^^ 



It goes without saying, therefore, that the politics and economics 

 of a "global minerals shortage" can create grave new problems between 

 the United States and the LDCs, for as Secretary Rogers said, the 

 United States has a "clear interest in facilitating the flow of resources 

 to the developing world." ^" Thus the impending minerals shortage is 

 pregnant with possibilities for conflict between the LDCs and the ad- 

 vanced industrial countries. Mr. Bergsten, sharply criticizing the 

 administration and Congress for failing to take greater interest in the 

 LDCs, urged establishing a policy framework that would depress con- 

 flict, and offered this estimate of the consequences of pursuing a policy 

 of confrontation with the developing countries : 



... it is no longer clear that the United States would emerge "the winner" 

 in confrontation with the Third World. Even if it was economically irrational 

 for other countries to trigger such confrontations, however, this by no means rules 

 them out. Individual LDC governments might be forced into such a posture by 

 internal political imperatives even if the outcome were unfavorable to their "true" 

 national interest. But the main point is that the United States would suffer sig- 

 nificant costs even if, in some sense, it "won" a confrontation — by substituting 

 high-cost shale oil for lower-cost Persian Gulf crude, or South Carolina cotton 

 goods for Korean synthetics. In the long run, there will be no winners. Since the 

 policy framework of U.S. relations with the Third World is likely to go far in 

 determining whether such events occur, or even threat to occur, U.S. interests 

 would be greatly served by creating a framework in which they will not occur.*^* 



Call for Policy Reappraisal. — Development specialists seem agreed 

 on a policy of interdependence as a means for reducing the develop- 

 ment gap and for achieving the Nation's best interests. The inequities 

 and injustices issuing from the development gap, along with one of 

 its causes, brain drain, have long provoked the LDCs. But it has also 

 pricked the conscience of Americans and inspired demands among 

 political leaders and foreign policy specialists for reappraisals of 

 policy and corrective action. Underlying the expressions of moral in- 

 dignation and recommended responses are assumptions that "national 

 security interest" and "self-interest" could be achieved by recognizing 

 and acting on the principle of the interdependence of nations. Profes- 

 sor Robert R. Bowie of Harvard has warned that the waning of con- 



816 Bergsten, op. cit., p. 110. 



«8 The Washington Post, Jan. 14, 1974, p. Al. 



«^ Secretary of State Roger's Foreign Policy Report to Congress of 1972, 1973, p. 43. 



*i^ Bergsten, op. clt., p. 116. In this same article, Mr. Bergsten wrote: "The United 

 States Is the least responsive to Third World needs of any Industrallzed country at this 

 time. U.S. help Is small in quantity, and getting smaller. Its quality Is declining. It often 

 runs directly counter to the central objectives of the LDCs just outlined. It lags far 

 behind the policies of Europe and Japan. The Administration and Congress must share 

 in the indictment." (Bergsten, op. clt. p. 104.) 



