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Technology forecasting is an emerging set of techniques for estimating 

 probable future changes m specific applications of science and tech- 

 nology, including both what and when. 



Discussions of international science and technology tend to assess 

 relative levels of accomplishment among nations. National achieve- 

 ment in science is measured in such terms as outstanding discoveries, 

 Nobel prizes awarded, funds available for scientific research, and 

 numbers of persons awarded highest academic degrees in scientific 

 fields. On the other hand, technological level is measured by a nation's 

 gross national product and its rate of growth, military potency, 

 achievements in such difficult fields as space and atomic energy, the 

 productivity of industry, numbers of patents awarded its nationals, 

 number of graduate engineers, and — speaking internationally — a 

 favorable balance of royalties received over royalties paid and con- 

 tributions of industry to balance of payments. 



Distmctions can also be drawn between the "community of science" 

 and the "community of technology." A later section will discuss the 

 character and structure of the community of science. Traditionally 

 cooperative, international, highly discipline-oriented, this community 

 characteristically exchanges information, judges the excellence of 

 the work of its own members, discipline by discipline, and tends to 

 coalesce in specialized research centers. The "community of tech- 

 nology" is much less coherent, if indeed it is a "community" at all. 

 In the United States, most of its members serve private industry. 

 Although technical societies are common, with perhaps several 

 million members, and technical journals disclose a great deal of tech- 

 nical mformation, the most valuable infoimation tends to be withheld 

 from publication. International associations of engineers are neither 

 very large nor very active. 



In drawing this distinction between scientists and teclmologists, the 

 national role of the scientist should not be neglected. Despite the 

 many international attachments, scientists are commoiJy aware of 

 and tend to serve their own coiuitry's interests. Technologists also 

 may divide .their attention between national and international 

 interests, although their international affiliations tend to be more 

 commercial than intellectual. 



It is commonly held that the main means of international transfer 

 of technology is the multinational corporation. The extent to which 

 the patent system of the United States effects technology" transfer 

 is somewhat controversial because what is disclosed in a patent may 

 be less useful than what is withheld (i.e., "trade secrets"). J^ is common 

 for American corporations to have a hierarchy of "security classifi- 

 cations" of their technology ranging from "company private," 

 "proprietary," "company confidential," to "company secret." 



One last distinction should be made between science and technology: 

 the amount of money invested. Few fields of science involve large 

 costs, and in these (for example, large particle accelerators, astronomi- 

 cal observatories, seabed drilling, Antarctic expeditions, space explora- 

 tion, and weather studies), the bulk of the outlay is for the technology 

 used in the research. Because of these high costs, there has been a 

 grov/ing tendency for scientists of several nations to work in multi- 

 national research teams sharing costly facilities. However, apart 

 from these "big science" fields, costs of technological development 



