1436 



space affairs in OES. In many important areas, he said, such as 

 "space, defense, energy, environment, health, industrial development, 

 trade, food, and so on," most of the action related to technology. 

 "That is where the stick}' pioblems are." The United States was still 

 the most affluent country in the world, with the "largest reservoir of 

 technology" but this- position was eroding, and the trend called for 

 "a more realistic understanding of our national interest." And then 

 he asked: "Who defines our national interest, how is it defined, and 

 in what time scale are we operating?" Among the questions that fol- 

 lowed from this basic inquiry were, accordmg to Packer : 



For example, how do you balance short-term economic gains against long-term 

 competitive risks? How do j'ou weigh the anger and possible retaliation of a 

 foreign countrj^? How do you account for intense competition for the business 

 by foreign industries? How do you consider the capacity of the overseas customer 

 to assimilate the technology transfer to our later disadvantage? How do you deal 

 with foreign customers who want an independent R&D capability rather than 

 products? How should go\'ernment provide useful guidance and help to U.S. 

 industry? How do you measure the existing technology gap in a specific technology 

 area? What are the probable rates of progress in the U.S. and overseas and what 

 will the future trend be in the technology gap? What should our attitude be toward 

 exporting management and systems integration skills? How can we encourage the 

 import of certain commerciallj^ valuable technologies developed in Japan, USSR, 

 Europe and elsewhere? What are the risks of technology diversion t« undesired 

 militar}' use or to third parties? What are the comparative risks of transferring 

 various embodiments of technology by different modes of transfer? To what 

 extent does U.S. government action actually control the diffusion of technology 

 and what is the likely impact of possible actions? i^* 



These were only a few of the important questions (clearly both 

 economic and technological) that needed to be asked and answered. 

 But, he added: "I cannot, unfortunately, assure j^ou that these and 

 other questions are now being asked and answered in a comprehensive, 

 s^^stematic, and objective manner." 



While the predictive power of technology analysis warrants attention 

 in the area of international economics, the utility of such analysis 

 should not be regarded as solely for long-range forecasting of future 

 developments. Indeed, it is possible that technological events are 

 moving so rapidly that only short-range forecasting is practicable on 

 this basis. Fifteen years ago, George Kistiakowsky warned that "What 

 is new today is the rapidity with which the developments of science 

 are altering the human condition, the rapidity with which policy, 

 particularly foreign policy, must adjust to the changes being wrought 

 by the pace of scientific advance." ^^^ Similar observations have been 

 repeatedly offered in more recent years by Secretaries of State, the 

 Director of SCI, and others. The thrust of this point is that a close 

 interaction would be appropriate in the Department of State between 

 officials engaged in economic analysis, those concerned with techno- 

 logical trends, and those conducting policy anal3'sis and planning. 



The Foreign Information Function and Technological Change 



In the Department of State a counterpart to the military function of 

 general staff intelligence ("G-2") was established b}^ General Marshall 



"< Leo S. Packer, "Technology Export and Foreign Affairs." a talk delivered at the banquet of the 1974 

 Tactical Missiles Conference, sponsored jointly by the American Institute of Astronautics and Aeronautics 

 and The American Defense Preparedness Association, May 1, 1974, pp. 5-6. (Furnished by the Office of 

 Technology Policy and Space Affairs, Bureau of Oceans and International Environmental and Scientific 

 Affairs, U.S. Department of State.) 



'«5 G. B. Kistiakowsky, "Science and Foreign Affairs," Science, April 8, 1960, p. 1020. 



