Systems 

 Analysis 



Deduction 

 Simulation 



Model 



Data 

 Experiments 



Predictions 



Hypothesis '< ■• 



Policy 

 Implementation * > Formation 



Adaptation 



Pilot Studies 

 Management Experiments 



Figure 1 . Sequence of activities required in analyzing resource systems and devising 

 policies for management. The gaps inhibiting this progression are indicated 

 by the broken lines. 



seemed sufficiently embedded in the history of resource science to demand a carefully 

 organized series of steps that could progressively bridge the gaps."' 



Most of those gaps were bridged, at least to some significant degree. But others 

 have appeared. It is the purpose of this paper to review the highlights and to identify 

 the new problems and gaps that have emerged. In short: what we learned and where 

 we are stumbling. 



WHAT WE LEARNED 



The paragraphs in quotes and Figure 1, which were composed in 1968, still seem to 

 be an adequate description of the status at that time. But our experience since then 

 suggests three critical additions. First, the gaps in the sequence of activities are 

 obviously matched by gaps between people — between expert, manager, decision 

 advisor, decisionmaker, and citizen. Hence the challenge was not simply to better 

 understand the interrelated behavior of fish or fowl or economies, or to develop 

 wonderful methods of modeling and policy analysis. It was more to develop an 

 understanding of people — hence the communication methods and workshop 

 procedures of AEAM where the strengths of disciplinary experts, policy analysts, 

 managers and decisionmakers are blended. 



The second addition is the two-way interaction between policy formation and 

 implementation, emphasizing the unpredictable nature of policy design and imple- 

 mentation and the need to evaluate and adapt to the inevitable unexpecteds. And, 

 finally, as indicated in the figure, several words needed to be added for emphasis: 

 deduction added to simulation to emphasize that there are a variety of different kinds 

 of models (not just simulation models), each with different strengths; adaptation 

 added to policy formation to emphasize, again, the adaptive nature of renewable 

 resource assessment and management; management experimentation added to pilot 

 studies to emphasize the active role of management design in probing and exploring 

 the unknown. 



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