the coming decade, we will see greater support for comprehensive planning for 

 ecological assessments. This should foster the appropriate role for data bases that can 

 serve several purposes in the decisionmaking arena. Certainly, recent legal mandates 

 lead in this direction (see discussion under Institutional Perspectives). 



It has also been suggested that the central issue in applying ecological concepts in 

 environmental science is how to cope with the unknown, nui how to mobilize our 

 present knowledge to best advantage.'* Further, the need to document assumptions, 

 doubts, and tradeoff considerations used in e.xecutive branch decisions is 

 fundamental to the judicial branch's responsibilities.'* The emergence of the 

 "Adaptive Environmental Assessment and Management" approach offers an 

 attractive solution to the pragmatic design of ecological assessments.''' This 

 approach has been applied to a wide variety of environmental and natural resource 

 problems (see C.S. Holling. Section II). As with any methodology, not all 

 applications have been successful for both institutional and technical reasons. 20 

 Other approaches offering methodologies for consideration have emerged in the 

 seventies. These are: the integration of social and technical approaches;-' combined 

 assessment of components, structural features, and functional indicators;-- and the 

 systems approach in assessment design." All of these newer approaches bring a 

 different perspective to the nature and role of data bases. 



Perhaps the most striking feature of virtually all ecological assessments during the 

 past decade is the absence of learning —the feedbacks to the steps in design (Figures 1 

 and 2). The role of feedback is essential to both corrective policy changes and 

 improved predictions of important aspects of the ecological system susceptible to 

 failure. This "safe-failure" philosophy has not yet infiltrated basic legal mandates but 

 is being incorporated into agency policy through revised implementation 

 regulations,-^ which is a trend that hopefully will be followed in the ensuing decade. 

 The tendency has been to treat environmental assessment requirements as a one-time 

 step (or hurdle); thus, too little emphasis has been placed on the role of monitoring 

 key ecological factors.^ A basic problem has been the lack of legal or institutional 

 mandates to require or conduct such follow-through. Recent legislation, such as the 

 Surface Mining Control and Reclamation Act of 1977. and its subsequent 

 implementing regulations issued by the Office of Surface Mining Reclamation and 

 Enforcement. USDI. begin to address this issue and will help provide incentive for 

 ecological monitoring as we enter the 1980s. 



CONCLUDING REMARKS 



From the foregoing discussion, I have presented several perspectives on the role of 

 data base development and our direction in the coming years. There is clear legal 

 mandate to pursue data base development from an ecological perspective, focused 

 upon ecosystem planning and management. Several technical challenges are 

 apparent as we look to the future. Certain bridges need to be built between ecological 

 theory and the design of assessment procedures. Common information requirements 

 need to be sought among federal, state and local agencies, in order to reduce the 

 number of data bases that need to be developed. Collectively, these challenges define 

 a role for the development of ecological data bases to increase the effectiveness and 

 efficiency of assessments for various purposes. 



Perhaps the greatest challenge is to modify the institutional perception that 

 assessments (such as NEPA) are not a technically separate process from monitoring 

 the effects of a decision. Such follow-through not only fine tunes assessment process 

 predictive capabilities but also keeps the resource manager advised of unexpected 

 ramifications of that decision. Thus a major role emerges for the development of 

 ecological data bases — the linkage of measurements through time (and space) for the 

 detection of change. Subsequent interpretation of ecological change is the key to 

 managing healthy ecosystems for man's use and benefit. 



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