financed by public funds. Perhaps public opinion will be shaped most importantly by 

 the unfolding of the energy picture. In trying to look ahead at environmental 

 toxicology needs, let us assume some reasonably suitable adjustment to our energy 

 situation is achieved. 



We can then expect even more pressure for shorter, cheaper and simpler tests to 

 deal with the thousands of new chemicals that will come into use. The use of such tests 

 will pass from research into the realm of routine data generation. Data production, 

 an important activity in environmental toxicology research during the 1970s, will 

 decrease. Much more effort will be expended on predicting rather than actually 

 measuring toxicity. The use of predictions based on chemical structure and 

 properties will receive much more attention. 



The practical usefulness of microcosms will be resolved. A much better perception 

 of their value and shortcomings will take their proper place — whatever that turns out 

 to be. We will give much more attention to careful selection of the best species to test 

 for given needs. 



Because a large data base has been developed during the past decade, we are likely 

 to increase our perusal of that data and begin to draw generalizations and principles 

 from them. These will enable us to build on the foundation of the seventies at a much 

 accelerated rate and will help immensely in making more accurate predictions. We 

 should be able to forecast toxic responses from chemical groups, much as is now 

 possible in pharmacology. 



Perhaps the most profound change in direction will occur if global contamination 

 problems continue to grow (for example, acid precipitation). Environmental 

 regulation has largely been concerned with small areas and particular species. The 

 more ecologically inclined have pushed hard for greater consideration of functional 

 endpoints such as photosynthetic rates. Such functional measures of impact have not 

 played a key role in regulation up to 1980. Global or continental contamination has 

 the potential to affect our very life support system, for example, the oxygen/ carbon 

 dioxide balance in the atmosphere. Both the environmental toxicologist and the 

 public will then better appreciate the need for protection of functions and may be 

 much less concerned about sport fish and vanishing species. As a concomitant need, 

 we will more carefully examine the community significance of endpoints of effect 

 now used in single species toxicity tests. The meaning to communities of a 10% 

 growth reduction in a toxicity test will need to be ascertained. 



In summary we can look back and look forward and characterize the decades as 

 follows: 



The fifties were concerned with domestic sewage. 



The sixties consisted of a period of initial methods development and testing of 



pesticides. 

 The seventies were a period of rapid improvements in methods and data 



generation. 

 The eighties are likely to be a period of rapid progress in prediction and more 



efficient use of resources because of the foundation developed in the 



previous decade. 



It seems worth repeating that the direction our efforts take will be very much 

 dictated by how major issues such as those connected with energy are resolved or not 

 resolved by society. 



REFERENCES 



1. Mount, D. I., and W. A. Brungs. 1967. A simplified dosing apparatus for fish 

 toxicology studies. Water Res. 1; 21-29. 



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