Strategy — WTRRNGFERT/MMOK 



1 . DEV + 0/M Costs = $470,793.40 



2. Discounted DEV + 0/M Costs = $409,039.82 



3. Total Goal Units = 3,511 



4. Cost/Unit (Item 1 /Item 3) + $1 34.08 



5. Discounted Cost/Unit (Item 2/ltem 3) = $1 16.50 



6. Probability of Success = 80% 



7. Efficiency Index (Item 6/ltem 4) = 5,966 



8. Efficiency Index (Discounted) (Item 6/ltem 5) + 6,867 



Do You Wish to Change the Probability of Success? 

 ? yes 



Figure 4. Cost Effectiveness Summary - Strategy - WTRRNGFERT/ 

 MMOK (winter range fertilization applied to mountain 

 mahogany - oak scrub (Cercocarpus-Quercus). Dev + 0/M 

 means development plus operation and maintenance costs. 



An intermediate output display of planning value is the cost /strategy implementa- 

 tion profile (Figure 5). It shows the expenditures required each year over the life of 

 the project. 



As with PATREC questionnaire construction, MANALT data bank entry efforts 

 will identify specific research needs, particularly with regard to management effec- 

 tiveness evaluations. 



WILDMIS LIMITATIONS 



One condition that may limit the use of WILDMIS as a routine operational tool in 

 habitat protection and management consists of the thinking habits of people, 

 especially the habit of being vague and non-committal. WILDMIS requires specific 

 thinking with respect to setting priorities and objectives, defining habitat require- 

 ments and predicting the production increase that results from a management 

 action. It also requires a commitment by the user to make a rational guess in lieu of 

 perfect and complete data. My experience with managers and biologists indicates 

 that having to be specific and committal under imperfect conditions often makes 

 them uncomfortable. However, I have found also that the discomfort can eventually 

 be displaced by rising confidence after appropriate questions have been asked and 

 participants begin to recognize that they (a) really knew more about the subject than 

 they realized they did, and (b) the consequences of providing specific estimates in lieu 

 of perfect knowledge, even if somewhat in error, will not be calamitous. Often, just 

 providing order and structure to the analytical process and documenting those 

 conclusions, results in habitat protection advocates being in a more defensible 

 position. 



Another limitation to the use of WILDMIS is a bona fide lack of applicable data. 

 That condition may exist regardless of what approach to decisionmaking is used. 

 WILDMIS simply pinpoints what data are missing but necessary to make informed 



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