reformulated or else founded on deeper strata of knowledge and 

 understanding. Otherwise, shifting circumstances will quickly erode 

 their applicability, and they are likely to become part of the problem 

 rather than the solution. 



With slower rates of change, past answers are a better guide, and 

 the occasionally needed revisions can be formulated, tested, and 

 revised after problems are already upon us. With faster rates of 

 change, problems need to be foreseen rather than experienced, and the 

 consequences of policy choices need to be anticipated rather than 

 discovered. The task of foreseeing problems and predicting policy 

 outcomes is, however, immensely more difficult than the task of 

 reacting to events and adjusting policies by trial and error. Of course, 

 no amount of science or rational analysis can guarantee perfect 

 foresight or the discovery of all possible options, but lack of perfection 

 is no argument for failing to make the best possible use of the 

 intellectual tools available, or for failing to take advantage of every 

 opportunity to add to these tools. 



Interdependencies and rapid change also strain the capacities of 

 our current fund of scientific knowledge and our current research 

 methodologies. The need is increasing for knowledge of the multitude 

 of interdependent factors and processes involved in the changes, as 

 well as for experimental and analytic methodology applicable to 

 complex, unique, rapidly evolving systems, including social systems. 



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