incompatibility of different trends assures that they cannot all 

 continue. Thus, simple extension of current trends shows an 

 impossible future — not a likely one. The real difficulty in foreseeing 

 the future is in perceiving which trends will change, when, and how, 

 and what trends now so insignificant in magnitude as to be barely 

 perceptible will grow into the major influencing factors in the future. 

 It is these latter factors that are the storm signals of the future, and 

 that require extensive knowledge of the multitude of related factors 

 and a deep understanding of their interactions. The requisite 

 knowledge and understanding are frequently unavailable. 



A second difficulty is the growing interrelatedness of these 

 problems. Population growth, food production, energy demands, 

 mineral resources, environmental pollution, for example, are not 

 independent problems. Because of these interdependencies, it is 

 increasingly difficult to find solutions to one problem that do not 

 aggravate another or create a new problem. The requirement of 

 emission controls on automobiles which increase fuel consumption, 

 the banning of phosphate detergents in favor of caustics which are 

 hazardous to children, and the substitution of pesticides for DDT 

 which are less damaging to birds but more harmful to humans 

 illustrate this difficulty. One of the most striking characteristics of the 

 future probably lies in its increasing interdependencies. 



There is a final difficulty. Most of the problems that can be 

 foreseen have so far shown only a small part of themselves. Popular 

 attention and governmental concern tend to focus on these current 

 manifestations of problems — even though they are often little more 

 than precursive symptoms — with the result that actions intended as 

 remedial are often halfway measures. An illustration of this is the use 

 of catalysts in conjunction with the internal combustion engine, rather 

 than the development of a new type of engine that would be 

 intrinsically nonpoUuting. Efforts that deal with symptoms often leave 

 the underlying problems misunderstood or neglected, and may even 

 be counterproductive. It is this — the response to symptoms — that 

 gives the impression of moving from crises to crises, each m.ore 

 unexpected than the last. 



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