in developed and poor countries for many years, but the more rapid 

 growth of population in the poor nations has absorbed virtually all 

 their gains in food production. As a result, two-thirds of mankind is 

 hungry and malnourished much of the time. Continued population 

 growth, increasing costs of energy for agricultural production, 

 shortage of fertilizer and its three-fold price increase, and rampant 

 inflation, make the prospects bleak for the developing world to acquire 

 the food needed to stave off starvation in the years ahead. 



Nations with high and rising per capita incomes — particularly in 

 Europe and Japan — are turning away from rice and wheat staples and 

 increasing their consumption of animal protein. The high demand for 

 meat in affluent countries reduces the grain available for direct 

 consumption in the rest of the world. The substitution of meat for 

 cereals, moreover, is an inefficient pattern of consumption: as a rule, 

 seven pounds of grain are needed to produce one pound of beef, four 

 pounds to produce one pound of pork, and three pounds for one of 

 poultry. An additional cost of the substitution is an increasing 

 incidence of degenerative diseases associated with animal protein and 

 high fat diets. 



Food production can be expected to increase in response to 

 growing demand. Land suitable for crops, but held out of production, 

 can be turned to agriculture. Over 55 million acres of such land was 

 made available in the United States between 1972-74 for the planting 

 of wheat, corn, and other grains. Less suitable land throughout the 

 world can be converted to agriculture, although the costs and often 

 limited availability of inputs (e.g., water, energy, and fertilizers) as 

 well as environmental damage ultimately constrain such expansion. 

 But perhaps the greatest potential for increased production lies in 

 tropical agriculture. These regions, which offer the possibility of 

 multiple annual crops, have only a small fraction of their land under 

 cultivation. Moreover, they include countries which have the most 

 critical shortages of food and the least ability to purchase it elsewhere. 

 Tropical regions, however, are believed to have a delicate ecological 

 balance, which may restrict food production to relatively low levels. 

 Determination of possible ecological constraints is an urgent matter 

 which should precede large efforts aimed at expanding production in 

 these regions. 



Further gains in productivity can be achieved through the wider 

 application of modern agricultural technologies: mechanization, 

 irrigation, fertilization, and control of weeds and insects. Each of 

 these, however, has unwanted side effects or calls for expensive 

 energy inputs. Mechanized agriculture, for example, requires 

 expenditures of energy that may be far greater than the energy 

 embodied in the food produced. Irrigation may raise the water table to 

 such an extent that the growth of plants is eventually inhibited by 

 waterlog or by salt deposits that develop just beneath the surface soil. 



16 



