The Nation could obviously survive with lower rates of oil 

 consumption. Why, then, have recent changes in supply and price been 

 disruptive? A part of the answer is that, once accustomed to a certain 

 level of consumption, that level becomes a "need." But a more 

 important part of the answer is that the energy distribution system 

 and the transportation and manufacturing structure are all closely 

 connected and rather finely attuned to each other and to current 

 patterns of international trade. Sudden, major changes disrupt the 

 system, and a long time period is required for adjustment. During this 

 period, the supply of energy may oscillate between shortages and 

 surpluses and prices may rise and fall, as efforts are made to alter the 

 overall system so that energy supply and demand can be brought into 

 balance. Problems of this sort will tend to recur in such systems unless 

 adjustment times can be shortened, or capabilities to anticipate are 

 improved, or redundancies or cushions are built into the systems. 

 Since many of the disruptions are political in origin, and cannot be fully 

 anticipated, redundancy among alternative energy sources and 

 greater storage capacity would appear necessary as insurance. For 

 these several reasons, "energy" is likely to remain a serious matter for 

 many years; only the aspects of concern will change. 



The energy problem illustrates the increasing interrelatedness of 

 different problems. The demand for energy imposed by the world's 

 increasing need for food has already been noted. The demand for 

 energy to obtain, to reclaim, and to process mineral resources is also 

 part of the total energy problem. The design of human settlement 

 patterns — the design of cities and of the living and working 

 environments— will have great effect, for better or worse, on energy 

 consumption. In turn, the availability and cost of energy will have a 

 profound effect on the future evolution of patterns of production and 

 settlement. And of course, the processes of obtaining fuel, of 

 transporting it, of generating electric power, of energizing the 

 transportation system and industrial plants — all constitute a major 

 part of the growing "environmental" problem. 



The different roles that science plays in relation to the short-run 

 and long-run aspects of problems are well illustrated by the energy 

 area. In the short run it must be largely policy adjustments, rather 

 than new technological developments or basic economic or social 

 changes, that help cope with such problems. In the longer run, 

 technology, as well as economic and social changes, must provide 

 acceptable solutions. 



The role of basic science differs for the different time periods. In 

 the short run, science must assist in the recognition and interpretation 

 of the problems, assessment of the available policy options, and 

 evaluation of the risks and likely results of the various choices 

 available. In the long run, its role is to provide the basis for new 

 options. In the short run, only the established fund of knowledge — the 

 results of basic research already completed — can help. In the long run. 



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