General References 



The Primary Production of the Biosphere, a symposium given at the Second 

 Congress of the American Institute of Biological Sciences reported in Human 

 Ecology, Vol. 1(4), pp. 301-368, 1973. 



Whittaker, R. H., Communilies and Ecosystems, Macmillan Company, 1970. 



Energy 



There is little need in these times to call attention to the problem 

 of energy. It is mentioned here simply to illustrate the nature of the 

 problem, how it arose and the likely future prospects, the 

 interrelatedness of energy and other problems, and the general role of 

 science and technology in the energy area. (The implications of the 

 energy problem for basic research and technology are discussed in 

 more detail in the next chapter.) 



The energy problem of 1973-74 has been emerging over the last 

 few decades: consumption of energy rose rapidly; major reliance was 

 placed increasingly on one form of energy (petroleum); and the supply 

 of this energy shifted from domestic to foreign sources. Ample 

 warning had been given of the likely consequences of this combination 

 of trends. But possibly the problem was too complex, too vast in scope, 

 and too distant on the time horizon for the capacity of the institutions 

 which are responsible for dealing with it. The bulk of the broader 

 energy problem lies in the future. It remains to be seen whether recent 

 events lead to a greater concern for the long-run future, or to a false 

 confidence in the Nation's capability to cope with any crisis after it 

 arises. 



In past decades, energy has been cheap and abundant in the United 

 States. It has recently become more expensive, and mismatches have 

 occurred between available supplies and demand. These conditions 

 became severe in the past year, only in part because of reductions in 

 the supply of mid-East oil. While many factors underlie the problem, 

 most are related to the phenomenal growth which has characterized 

 petroleum consumption in the United States and, even more, in the 

 rest of the developed world. 



Accelerating strain on fossil fuel resources is the inevitable 

 consequence of exponential growth in demand. Given anticipated 

 growth rates in world energy consumption of three or four percent 

 annually, and given current estimates of ultimately recoverable 

 reserves, worldwide exhaustion of natural gas may be anticipated in 

 this century, and of oil early in the next century. Even if present 

 estimates of ultimately recoverable resources are unduly pessimistic, 

 this will postpone the day of reckoning only a few decades, so long as 

 demand continues its exponential growth. 



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