(a) predict the consequences of proposed policies, 



(b) provide guidance for collecting data relevant to possible 

 policies and problem areas, and 



(c) provide confidence to the general public and officials of 

 the necessity and wisdom of the action, in order to generate 

 the political will for implementing the proposed policies. 



Efforts to develop the necessary knowledge — in data and 

 theory — may encounter some peculiar difficulties. The knowledge 

 gained may remain valid for only a relatively short period of time, 

 because of the incessant change which people and social institutions 

 undergo. There is, in addition, the possibility that the objects of study 

 may be modified by the very act of studying them. These essentially 

 methodological problems may be solved, but they do suggest that until 

 that time the general propositions of the social sciences may lack the 

 immutability that is usually associated with laws in the natural 

 sciences. 



The natural and social sciences differ in another important way. 

 Both observation and experiments are used as methods of research in 

 the natural sciences whereas observation alone is the primary method 

 of the social sciences. The limited use of experimental methods 

 seriously impedes development of the social sciences. Although there 

 often are constraints against their use, increased efforts should be 

 made to find acceptable forms of experimentation in social areas. A 

 start in this direction is illustrated by recent experiments in education 

 financing and income maintenance, which were designed to test the 

 feasibility of approaches to these problems prior to legislative action. 



Challenges of Man's Increasing Power 



Over the past 100 years man's ability to modify, even irreversibly, 

 the worldwide habitat has grown enormously. This is due partly to 

 simple increase in numbers — the population explosion — but also to 

 growing technological capabilities. Challenges of this type are the 

 prime concern of this report. 



Compared with the other types, these challenges are less familiar 

 and often lead either to exaggerated fears or to complacency — to panic 

 response or to irresponsible inertia. Such responses frequently arise 

 from the lack of knowledge. The sparse evidence available admits of 

 many different interpretations, biased by different political 

 predilections or social values, and the distinction between fact and 

 value becomes more blurred the more inadequate the understanding. 



In a fuller sense, though, clear and adequate description of these 

 emerging problems is exceedingly difficult. First, "simple" trend 

 extensions do not foretell what is going to happen. Indeed, the 



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