To put the significance of these estimates in perspective, one would expect the Charleston 

 area to lose less than 0.5 percent of its wetlands in the next century if current rates of conversion 

 for development continue. Although a substantial amount of marsh was filled as the city was built, 

 conversion of wetlands to dry land came to a virtual halt with the creation of the South Carolina 

 Coastal Council. Since 1977, the state has lost only 35 of its 500,000 acres to dry land (South 

 Carolina Coastal Council 1985). Impoundments have transformed another 100 acres. 7 Extrap- 

 olating these trends would imply a loss of about 1,500 acres in the next century, about 0.3 

 percent of the state's coastal wetlands. Thus, sea level rise would be the dominant cause of 

 wetland loss. 8 



In the New Jersey study area, the high marsh dominates. Thus, there would not be a major 

 loss of total marsh acreage for the low scenario through 2075; the high marsh would simply be 

 converted to low marsh. For the high scenario, however, there would be an 86 percent loss of 

 marsh, somewhat greater than the loss in the Charleston area. Table 1-3 illustrates the projected 

 shifts in wetlands for the South Carolina and New Jersey Case studies through the year 2075; 

 Table 14 shows projected changes in marsh area for net rises in sea level (over accretion) 

 ranging from 10 to 100 cm. 



TABLE 1-3 



IMPACT OF SEA LEVEL RISE ON WETLANDS 1980-2075 (acres) 



Source: Kana et al. (Chapters 2 and 3). 



16 



