FIGURE 3-10 



NORMALIZED, CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY TIDE CURVES FOR THE GREAT BAY 



BOULEVARD AND TUCKERTON MARSHES 



NORMALIZED TIDAL RANGE V. 

 WETLANDS SPECIES 



2.00- 



1.50- 



1.00- 



0.50- 



0.00 - 



-0.50' 



1.00- 



1.50' 



-2.00 



Tidal Range 2.0 tt. 

 Tuckerton Marsh 



Panicum Sp. 



I 



Phragmites communis I Transition 



Spartina patens \ High 



Short Spartina alternitlora/ Marsh 



Tall Spartina alternitlora , 



(upper) 



DRY 



( Marsh 



— MHW 



MSL 



MLW 



WET 



T 



20 



-i r 



40 60 



T 



80 100 



CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY (%) 



CONCLUSIONS 



New Jersey's wetlands have been able to keep pace with the recent historical rise in sea level 

 of thirty centimeters (one foot) per century. However, a one- to one-and-one-half-meter (three- to 

 five-foot) rise would almost certainly be beyond the wetlands' ability to keep pace with the sea. 



We estimate that a ninety-centimeter (three-foot) rise in relative sea level would result in a 

 conversion of 90 percent of the study area's marsh from high marsh to low marsh. A large 

 majority of the area's tidal flats could be expected to convert to open water. Although such 

 changes would represent a substantial transformation, the predominance of high marsh in some 

 sense provides a buffer against the impact of sea level rise. Many would view the conversion of 

 high marsh to low marsh as acceptable. 



The impact of a one-and-one-half-meter (five-foot) rise in sea level would be more severe. 

 Such a rise would result in an 85 percent reduction of marsh and substantial reductions in the 

 area of transition wetlands and tidal flats. The loss of marsh could be even greater if development 

 just above today's marsh precludes the formation of new marsh as sea level rises. 



This study did not examine options for increasing the proportion of coastal wetlands that 

 survive an accelerating sea level rise. The institutional pressures to consider this issue may not be 

 great until wetland loss from sea level rise accelerates. Nevertheless, our long-run efforts to 

 protect coastal wetlands may be more successful if some thought is given to long-term measures 

 while the issue is still far enough in the future for planning to be feasible. 



81 



