FIGURE 4-16 



EAST GULF COAST REGION 



20, 



1975 2000 

 0-r= f 



2025 



2075 



-80L 



Apalachicola N, Fla. 

 100 



Drowned Karst Fla. 

 Apalachicola S, Fla. 

 Fort Walton Beach Fla. 



MISSISSIPPI DELTA REGION 



40r 



ral Isles Derniere N, La. 

 (S =4.0) 



Barataria Bay N, La. 

 (S =1 1.0) 



Barataria Bay S, La. (S = 1 1.0) 



entral Isles Derniere S, La. 

 (S = 4.0) 



-*Atchafalaya N, La. 

 (S = 3.5) 



Atchafalaya S, La. (S=3.5) 



Changes in wetland area in the east Gulf Coast and Mississippi Delta regions in SLAMM 

 simulations. The high scenario is shown. Development is protected only on significantly devel- 

 oped sites *. Unless otherwise noted, subsidence (S) is mm/yr. 



thus reducing its area. By 2050, this trend is only slightly developed; but by 2100, salt marsh has 

 expanded onto more than half of the original freshwater marsh. However, simultaneous move- 

 ment of marsh onto adjacent undeveloped lowland helps reduce the net marsh loss to about one- 

 half the original area. Further south, however, as around Aransas Wildlife Refuge, freshwater 

 marshes are more extensively flooded and over 90 percent may be lost by 2100 in the low 

 scenario. Also in this location, all marshes may be entirely lost by the end of the simulation 

 period, although earlier they held constant or even expanded relative to the 1975 condition. A 

 similar pattern holds for the Texas Barrier Islands region. 



115 



