TABLE 3-6 



EFFECTS OF GRADUAL, LONG-TERM SEA LEVEL RISE ON COMMON SPECIES 



FOR THE NEW JERSEY STUDY AREA UNDER THE LOW SCENARIO 



Effects 



High Marsh 

 Transition 



High 

 Marsh 



Low Marsh 

 Transition 



Low 

 Marsh 



Sub- 

 merged 



Significant Losses PC,JG 



Significant Gains 



Minor Losses/Gains IF,PV,PP 



SSA.SP.DS 



SB 



LC 



SB 



TSA, MSA RM 



= Limonium carolinianum 

 = Pluchea purpurescens 

 = Phragmites communis 

 = Ruppia maritima 

 = Distichlis spicata 

 = Juncus gerardi 



FIGURE 3-7 



CONCEPTUAL MODEL OF A HIGH-SCENARIO SEA LEVEL RISE IN THE 



TUCKERTON MARSH (Tidal Range = 2.0 ft) 



High Marsh 

 2075 

 3% 

 'Low Marsh 

 2075 

 •6% 



2075 (+ 4.5 ft.) 

 2075 (+ 2.8 ft.) 

 2075 (+ 2.0 ft.) 

 2075 (+ 0.5 ft.) 



-Z 2075 MSL 



High Scenario 



1980 MSL 



Water 

 1980 



33% 



*Axis on left shows NGVD elevation; spot elevations are relative to 1980 or 2075 mean sea level. 



Comparison with Charleston. The major difference between the responses of the New 

 Jersey and Charleston coastal areas to accelerated sea level rise would be under the low scenario. 

 In the case of Charleston, the more productive 5. alterniflora low marsh would suffer significant 

 net loss, whereas New Jersey would possibly gain slightly by a transformation from high marsh to 

 low marsh. This difference is, of course, related to the significant difference in present 

 distribution of high and low marsh for each area. Low marsh, which at present dominates in 

 Charleston, would most likely become tidal flats; high marsh, which at present dominates the 

 New Jersey study area wetlands, would become low marsh and actually promote the tall growth 

 form of S. alterniflora. 



Under the high scenario for both areas, 70-80 percent of existing wetlands would become 

 submerged or transformed into tidal flats. There are significant potential impacts to highlands 



78 



