At some sites marshes would expand significantly by the year 2050, spreading onto adjacent 

 undeveloped lowland (Figure 4-17). Generally, however, by the end of the simulation period, these 

 gains have been lost where barrier islands that protect marshes have been breached, or have 

 washed over onto the back-barrier marshes. Most of these regions have become open sea by this 

 time. Yet elsewhere, where tidal fluxes are dampened as in the Chenier Plain North sample area, 

 salt marshes continue to expand through the end of the twenty-first century. In such protected 

 situations, the full effects of sea level rise are delayed relative to more exposed situations. 



FIGURE 4-17 



CHENIER PLAIN-TEXAS BARRIER ISLANDS 



2000 



Texas Barrier Islands 



Chenier Plain N, Tex. 

 (S = 3.5) 



2050 2075 2100 



Aransas N, Tex. 

 ' (S = 3.5) 



Chenier Plain S, Tex. 

 (S = 3.5) 



Aransas S, Tex. 



-100 1 - 



(S = 3.5) 



Changes in wetland area in Texan study sites according to, SLAMM high-scenario simulations. 

 Unless otherwise noted, subsidence (S) is mm/yr. 



116 



