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measures, harvesting would be largely unregulated under 

 such a system even though commercial catch data could be 

 reported. 



Fish harvesting would remain unregulated. Krill har- 

 vesting would be confined to low levels for the next several 

 years by technical and economic limitations. However, as 

 these are overcome, harvesting intensity would increase and 

 emphasis would be on maximizing short term yields rather 

 than protecting long term productivity of the system. Under 

 such a regime, changes in populations of resource species 

 would initially be small, but later increase in direct 

 relationship to increased harvesting. Indirect impacts on 

 species dependent on target stocks would be very likely 

 within several decades. 



Without a whole ecosystem perspective for management 

 of harvesting, the health and long term productivity of 

 the ecosystem would be endangered. This alternative repre- 

 sents almost as much negative environmental impact as does 

 the alternative of no action regarding conservation measures. 



Separate national policies and informal agreements 

 between nations would be easier to reach than will be agree- 

 ment on the proposed conservation regime. However, the 

 Antarctic Treaty nations have endorsed establishment of a 

 conservation regime (see Appendix A) . 



4. Data Reporting now, Conservation Measures 

 Later 



The establishment of a mechanism for recording and 

 reporting commercial and scientific data now, with a 

 commitment to establish conservation measures later, is 

 the third alternative. The environmental impact of this 

 alternative would depend on the time required for even- 

 tual negotiation of a conservation regime. In the event 

 of establishment of vested economic interests in Antarctic 

 resources before a regime could be established, the negoti- 

 ation problems would be greatly increased and establishment 

 of a conservation regime could be delayed by many years. 



Present levels of harvesting for krill are limited by 

 technical and economic considerations. There is no imme- 

 diate interest in cephalopods and birds. Immediate impacts 

 on the ecosystem would be small, with the exception of some 

 fish which may already be overexploited. However, it is 

 possible that overexploitation of some stocks could occur 

 in the interval before a conservation regime could be nego- 

 tiated. Overharvesting would reduce the long term potential 

 productivity of the ecosystem. 



