STATE POMOLOGICAL SOCIETY, 4I 



ranged from twenty per cent to nearly 300 per cent away from 

 the facts. But it seemed to indicate to me that if we had a large 

 number of such reports, estimates of individual crops, especially 

 after the men had had a series of years of experiments, that we 

 might use these estimates of individual crops as the basis, ana 

 then figure the percentage of increase or decrease, if we could 

 ever get the measure of last year's crop, and figure the crop in 

 that way. Perhaps it might be helpful for me to tell you how 

 some of the other crops are estimated. The cranberry crop is 

 one of the nicest little crops to estimate, because it is grown in a 

 very limited area and the whole crop is moved by one railroad, 

 and practically the entire crop is moved. Very few of the berries 

 are eaten down there on the Cape, so that at the close of each 

 marketing period we get an exact measure of the crop. Then, 

 having that measure of the crop, we simply ask a large number 

 of the cranberry men to report the number of bushels they had 

 last year and to estimate the very best they can the number they 

 are going to have this year ; that gives the percentage of increase 

 or decrease from last year. That is the method of estimating 

 the cranberry crop. Some of those men growing cranberries 

 longest miss their yields by a wide margin, but it averages up 

 well. A plan that it has seemed to me might work is along 

 this same line, that is, to ask a sufficient number of the best 

 informed apple growers in each county to estimate their own 

 crop, and then from the average of those returns, to figure the 

 percentage of increase or decrease. Of course, in that case, it 

 would be necessary, first of all, to get a measure of some par- 

 ticular crop so that you would have a basis from which to start. 

 However, it seems feasible to get that here in your territory, at 

 any rate, because I believe it will be possible to get the railroads 

 to give us the shipment figures, and perhaps it may be possible 

 to get hold of the figures for the parts of the crops that do not 

 move over the railroads. Here in Maine a large part of the 

 crop does move over the railroads, and the figures have been 

 obtained there for several years. I do not know whether thev 

 have in the last year or two ; in fact, I believe not. I have noi 

 had time to take up that question with the railroads, but I am 

 assured by the Maine Central that they will help us out in any 

 way. I would like to have the judgment of one or two of the 

 apple men on that plan. Do you think it would work success- 



