WILBUR ON VITAL STATISTICS OF MICHIGAN. 103 



titative and qualitative fluctuations must be of interest to all loyal and 

 intelligent citizens of the state, and of direct value to all workers for 

 the common weal, whether in her legislative halls or in the quieter but 

 oftentimes more effective spheres of private influence. 



Such knowledge may be derived, to a very considerable extent, from 

 the "Vital Statistics of Michigan,'" published annually by the Secretary 

 of State. I wish especially in this paper to call the attention of the 

 members of this scientific society to certain conclusions presented in 

 the last published report (that for the year 1894) which have a very direct 

 and important bearing upon the probable future condition of our state, 

 at least so far as regards the source of its population in the years to 

 come. Indeed, the data presented have a broader meaning and one not 

 solely applicable to the future of our own state; they may be taken, 

 it is believed, as an index of the prospects for the continuance of the 

 native American race in this country. 



I shall not pause here to answer the sneer that an editorial writer 

 in a leading state journal threw upon discussions of this character and 

 upon vital statistics in general. He said, after ridiculing certain alleged 

 statistical absurdities that were purely of his own imagination, referring 

 to the statistics of births: "Even if the state were engaged in scientific 

 stirpiculture — as it is not — the facts could hardly be regarded as having 

 anv definite value." To a bodv of men accustomed to regard everv new 



t t. CD t 



fact in nature as of precious importance, even though its practical 

 or economic application may be unknown, such an objection will have 

 little weight. But it is no less true in sociology than in science gen- 

 erally that abstract knowledge may be the forerunner of many unforeseen 

 applications in daily life and use, and the sort of knowledge of the 

 movement and destiny of the American race that these statistics reveal 

 may vet have a direct influence in modifying the current of our national 

 life. " 



The following tabular comparison presents the fecundity of marriage 

 in Michigan for native and foreign-born mothers for four consecutive 

 quinquennial periods, extending from 1875 to 1894. It is necessary in 

 computing the fecundity of marriages to compare the children born in 

 one period with the marriages in the preceding period, so that the data 

 really extend from 1870 to 1894 and include twenty-five years of regis- 

 tration. Nearly a million births and nearly four hundred thousand 

 marriages are represented in this table for Michigan, so that the statis- 

 tical basis is amply large for satisfactory conclusions. As to the 

 technique employed, the necessary allowance for imperfect returns in 

 certain, respects, etc., the original report may be consulted, where the 

 method employed is fully explained. It may be said in corroboration 

 of the conclusions given in this table that results obtained from a special 

 inquiry by the last state census, and which were not available until 

 after the report was printed, closely agree with it. 



