270 THE EVOLUTIONARY CAREER 



the evolution that occurs when the arrangement of a successful 

 " Patience " sequence is being built up. When this arrangement 

 disappears there is no longer an evolution. 



88. ON EVOLUTION AND PROBABILITY 



52 



A pack of cards may be arranged in [52 different ways ( 



means the product 52 X 51 X 50 X ... X 3 X 2 X i). But 

 there may only be one way in which 52 cards can be arranged 

 as the result of a successful Patience-game. Let us suppose that 

 the cards are dealt " at random," that is, without any conventions. 

 (By " bUnd chance.") It is still possible that they may be so 

 dealt as to exhibit, '' by chance," a particular Patience-sequence. 

 Obviously the probability that this may happen is i in I52, 



which is a very small chance. 



Nevertheless, the Patience-player, by dealing the cards accord- 

 ing to certain conventions, may obtain the particular sequence, 

 say once in every ten trials. The probability consequent upon 

 dealing according to the conventions is now one in ten, which is 

 very great compared with the probability of obtaining the sequence 

 as the result of " blind chance." But, again, the player may quite 

 easily and deliberately free himself from any convention and select 

 and arrange the cards, one by one, and from a shuffled pack, and 

 cause the sequence to occur once in every trial. The probability 

 is then one in one. 



Thus there are sequences, or particular orders of things, or 

 special arrangements, which occur, at random (or by " blind 

 chance "), very infrequently, or with a very small degree of 

 probability. On the other hand, if '' blind chance " is replaced 

 by deliberated selection the sequence, or special arrangement, may 

 be made to occur with a very much greater degree of probability. 



Plainly there ought to be two contrasted evolutionary processes : 

 (i) That in which some particular order, or arrangement of the 

 elements of a physical system, results from changes in a prior 

 phase which did not exhibit the particular order, or arrangement. 

 (2) That in which a particular order, or arrangement, disappears 

 as the results of the changes that occur in the system. 



We must now show that the process (i) " models " organic 

 evolution and that (2) " models " inorganic and cosmic evolution. 

 In the years following the general acceptance of Darwin's hypo- 



