MICHIGAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCE. 115 



No wonder the Ueniocratie orators waxed eloquent over the sufferings 

 of the debtor class. But they went too far, and essayed to prophesy. 

 They told us these same conditions were going; to continue, under the 

 gold standard, and be intensified ; that gold would still farther increase 

 in value, and that for the simple but sufficient reason that there was 

 not enough gold in the world to do the money-work and supply what was 

 needed in the arts. Of course they proved to be poor prophets, as the 

 subsequent gold output and present high prices clearly demonstrate. 



According to Bradstreet's index number prices have advanced in the 

 United States up to January 1st, 1910, about 62% — have just about re- 

 covered the previous loss. A dollar in 1896 would, therefore, buy as 

 muck as .f 1.62 at the present time — which is the same as saying that 62 

 cents would buy as much then as a dollar now. 



In England the advance in prices to the level of the early eighties 

 has not been quite so complete. Industry, in Great Britain, has been 

 slow to recover from the panic of 1907, due probably to the agitation 

 over the budget question. Prices have risen in England, however, ac- 

 cording to Sauerbeck's and the Loudon Economist's index numbers about 

 30%. In other foreign countries they have increased from 30% to 40%, 

 and under normal conditions in England they no doubt would have in- 

 creased to the same extent. 



I have corresponded with careful observers of economic conditions, 

 in England, stating to them the rise in prices here and asking whether 

 they had advanced in the same degree there. One answered, "Not quite 

 to the same extent but almost;'' another Avrote, "Not quite so much;" 

 a third was unable to give the per cent of advance but attributed it to 

 the increased output of gold. 



Opinions gathered from such sources are of course not conclusive; 

 nor indeed is data gathered from anv source absolutelv final. But from 

 the best that can be obtained it seems reasonably certain that there 

 has been a common increase of from 30% to 40%. Local conditions make 

 it much more in the tlnited States and considerable more in some foreign 

 countries. 



LTndoubtedly in no country has the advance been due to a single 

 cause. Economic phenomena are almost invariably the result of a plural- 

 ity of causes. But so far as the advance in prices is common to all 

 countries, it cannot be ascribed to tariffs or trusts, to short crops or 

 short hours of labor, to speculation or taxation, or anything else which 

 operates only locally. We must look deeper for a force or forces that 

 are universal, world-wide. And such a force is to be found in the oat- 

 put of gold since 1806. 



I have copied from the last report of the director of the United 

 States mint (1908) — which gives the world's production of gold since 

 the discovery of America — the following table which is suflScient 

 for our discussion. 



