264 LIFE: ITS NATURE AND ORIGIN 



one policy holder will die. With the Gaussian laws of chance, as 

 with the Boltzmann entropy probability theorem, the more units 

 we deal with, the more accurate our calculations; but they cannot 

 be applied to a single unit. Since the behavior of individuals de- 

 pends on myriads of non-calculable physical and physico-chemical 

 contingencies, it is obvious that mathematical calculations regard- 

 ing the behavior of any individual (if indeed such calculations 

 could be made at all) would be tainted with elements of uncer- 

 tainty. 



The saying that marriage is a lottery has a physico-chemical 

 basis. The potencies of inheritance, sex, hormones, vitamins, 

 drugs, alcohol, dyspepsia, nervousness, suggestion, autosuggestion, 

 etc., being what they are, social scientists, military leaders, and 

 business men base their calculations on what may be expected of 

 the average person. Business proceeds on the basis that most men 

 are honest, but allows for shop-lifting, locks its doors at night, 

 employs watchmen, and insures against theft. The Devil can al- 

 ways quote Scripture to his purpose; but over-stern judges should 

 read Robert Burns' "Address to the Unco' Guid, or the Rigidly 

 Righteous." 



The Time Factor 



Bertrand Russell wrote: 3 "If you put a kettle on a nice hot fire, 

 will the water freeze? 'Certainly not,' says common sense, indig- 

 nantly. 'Probably not', says physics, hesitatingly. According to 

 physics, if every member of the human race put a kettle on the 

 fire every day for the next million million years (during which, 

 according to Jeans, the world is to remain habitable), it is not 

 unlikely that sooner or later the water in one these kettles would 

 freeze instead of boil." 



But Russell failed to state that among the ever-changing con- 

 catenations of molecular agitation, the extremely rare situation 

 that would permit freezing would last for so short a time that it 

 is unreasonable to believe that any freezing could take place — 

 certainly no demonstrable freezing. Similarly, a probability cal- 

 culation would show that if we only wait long enough, a brick 

 might float in air, because at a certain instant all or nearly all of 

 the impinging air molecules would strike the brick on the under 

 side, thus giving it an upward lift (at sea level) approximating 

 fifteen pounds to the square inch. But this calculation should 

 also indicate that this condition would be so fleeting that no one 



