THE THREAT OF OVERPOPULATION 20I 



done about births, otherwise the already dangerously large 

 population would rise to utterly impossible levels. The Jap- 

 anese themselves have made some gestures which inckide 

 legalized contraceptives, sterilization, and even abortion— 

 the last for "medical, economic and eugenic reasons." Up- 

 wards of 125,000 abortions were legally approved in the first 

 year of the new law; newspapers in Japan state that the 

 actual figure is near 300,000. Still the population is increas- 

 ing, but the realization of coming disaster is clear in the 

 minds of many Japanese, particularly the doctors who, not 

 liking abortion as a control, are making a real effort to bring 

 the birth rate down by contraceptive methods. 



Many other instances of the dangerous overgrowth in 

 our populations could be cited— India, China, Egypt, Italy, 

 and even the United States, which is just entering a period 

 of critical population expansion with some undesirable dif- 

 ferential aspects which will be mentioned in the next chap- 

 ter. The 1950 census for the United States recorded some 

 150,000,000 people, an increase over the 1940 census of 

 nearly 20,000,000. There was a rising birth rate and a falling 

 death rate all through the 1940's, a trend which most au- 

 thorities believe will not be continued as sharply in the 

 future. However, conservative estimates predict some 185,- 

 000,000 or more for 1970 and possibly 250,000,000 for the 

 year 2000. If the present rate of births over deaths were to 

 continue the population would be more than 300,000,000 

 by the year 2000. What this increase will do to the Ameri- 

 can economy is not hard to guess. We, too, are to learn by 

 experience what the crowding of Europe and Asia means 

 in lowered standards of living and widespread misery unless 

 some miracle of management saves us. Can it be seriously 

 contended that American institutions will survive unaltered 

 the pressure of definite overpopulation? 



Only in a few places in the world has a population been 

 relatively and happily stabilized at a level that fits the eco- 

 nomic situation. Sweden is probably the best example. The 



