4. SECRET HISTORY 



The history of mankind is double : political history which is to a 

 large extent a history of the masses, and intellectual history which 

 is largely the history of a few individuals. 



The first development is the obvious one; it is the one which has 

 thus far claimed the attention of historians almost exclusively. 

 The peoples of the earth and, within each nation, the different 

 classes of men, are not equally fertile, ingenious, energetic, ambi- 

 tious. Their ambition — in the case of peoples one calls it, often, 

 imperialism — is a function of their strength and vitality. If they 

 become conscious of their superiority without being restrained 

 by moral or religious motives, they are bound to become aggres- 

 sive. Between strong, numerous, hungry people on the one hand 

 and a people, weak and few in number, on the other, there arises, 

 so to say, a difference of potential which, if it reaches a certain 

 limit, causes a sudden disruption — war or revolution. Political or 

 economic history can thus be explained in terms of forces chiefly 

 material. (At least in theory, for in most cases the complexity of 

 causes is too great to admit of a strict analysis and we must be con- 

 tent to register most historical disruptions as we register earth- 

 quakes or cyclones : we know the causes but only in a general way, 

 and our grasp of them is very weak.) To be sure, other factors 

 than the material must be considered — moral and religious factors, 

 for instance, — but the fundamental causes are material. Leaders 

 may exert a deep influence and modify the course of events, but 

 only to a limited extent, for their energy remains always a function 

 of the energy of their following. They can lead only to the extent to 

 which they avail themselves of existing passions, of the differences 

 of potential which already obtain: they cannot create these dif- 

 ferences, but they can make use of them in various ways; they 

 can delay the discharge or else provoke it and modify its nature. 



The second development is far less obvious; in fact so far as the 



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